TAILIEUCHUNG - Economic and Fiscal Assessment Update

This raises the question, how can such accumulation be sustained and what happens when it stops? Conversely in a downturn: very large public-sector deficits are made inevitable by the private-sector’s return to net saving. But how long will public policymakers, unaccustomed to thinking about these relationships, tolerate those deficits? The question is important, since if for political reasons they do not, the economy may collapse. On the international side, the willingness of foreigners to hold US govern- ment bonds as reserve assets creates a counterpart in the . public deficit: . budget deficits are inevitable so long as the world wishes to add to its reserves of Treasury bonds | BUREAU DU_______________________ DIRECTEUR PARLEMENTAIRE DU BUDGET ________________OFFICE OF THE PARLIAMENTARY BUDGET OFFICER Economic and Fiscal Assessment Update Ottawa Canada November 2 2009 pbo-dpb Economic and Fiscal Assessment Update - November 2009 The Federal Accountability Act mandates the Parliamentary Budget Officer PBO to provide independent analysis to the Senate and House of Commons on the state of the nation s finances government estimates and trends in the national economy. The following report provides an update of the PBO Economic and Fiscal Assessment that was submitted to the Standing Committee on Finance on July 6 2009. Prepared by Russell Barnett Jeff Danforth Chris Matier and Brad Recker The authors would like to thank Mostafa Askari and Kevin Page for their helpful comments. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors. i Economic and Fiscal Assessment Update - November 2009 Key Points Although considerable uncertainty continues to surround the outlook a general consensus has emerged that a recovery in the global economy is now underway. Indeed the September 2009 PBO survey of private sector forecasters suggests little change in the Canadian economic outlook from the July Economic and Fiscal Assessment EFA . The outlook for nominal GDP - the broadest measure of the Government s tax base - is essentially unchanged over the medium term. The updated survey implies that the Canadian economy will not fully recover that is return to its potential until the end of 2013. This represents a cumulative loss of over 200 billion in unrealized output adjusted for inflation. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Output gap per cent difference of real GDP from potential PBO s projection of the Government s budgetary balance is slightly lower compared to the July EFA with a projected cumulative budgetary deficit of billion over the period 2009-10 to 2013-14. The budget deficit is projected

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