TAILIEUCHUNG - The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology

The automotive industry in India was heavily regulated until the 1970s. The automotive firms were obliged to obtain licenses from the Indian government for various firm activities. The 1980s witnessed some relaxation in the regulations and the entry of Japanese firms. In the early 1990s, India undertook historic economic reforms under which the automotive industry was liberalised. Various government interventions in the form of policies, existing at various points of time, have influenced the development of India’s automotive industry over these phases. . | WP 12 109 The Future of Oil Geology versus Technology Jaromir Benes Marcelle Chauvet Ondra Kamenik Michael Kumhof Douglas Laxton Susanna Mursula and Jack Selody INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 2012 International Monetary Fund WP 12 109 IMF Working Paper Research Department The Future of Oil Geology versus Technology Prepared by Jaromir Benes Marcelle Chauvet Ondra Kamenik Michael Kumhof Douglas Laxton Susanna Mursula and Jack Selody Authorized for distribution by Douglas Laxton May 2012 Abstract This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author s and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author s and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. We discuss and reconcile two diametrically opposed views concerning the future of world oil production and prices. The geological view expects that physical constraints will dominate the future evolution of oil output and prices. It is supported by the fact that world oil production has plateaued since 2005 despite historically high prices and that spare capacity has been near historic lows. The technological view of oil expects that higher oil prices must eventually have a decisive effect on oil output by encouraging technological solutions. It is supported by the fact that high prices have since 2003 led to upward revisions in production forecasts based on a purely geological view. We present a nonlinear econometric model of the world oil market that encompasses both views. The model performs far better than existing empirical models in forecasting oil prices and oil output out of sample. Its point forecast is for a near doubling of the real price of oil over the coming decade. The error bands are wide and reflect sharply differing judgments on ultimately recoverable reserves and on future price elasticities of oil demand and supply. JEL .

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