TAILIEUCHUNG - THE PHILLIPS CURVE AND LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT 1

This paper studies the role of long-term unemployment in the determination of prices and wages. Labor market theories such as insider-outsider models predict that this type of unemployed are less relevant in the wage formation process than the newly unemployed. This paper looks for evidence of this behavior in a set of OECD countries. For this purpose, I propose a new specification of the Phillips Curve that contains different unemployment lengths in a time-varying NAIRU setting. This is done by constructing an index of unemployment that assigns different weights to the unemployed based on the length of their spell. The. | EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK WORKING PAPER SERIES NO. 441 I FEBRUARY 2005 THE PHILLIPS CURVE AND LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT by Ricardo Llaudes EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK WORKING PAPER SERIES NO. 441 I FEBRUARY 2005 THE PHILLIPS CURVE AND LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT1 by Ricardo Llaudes2 In 2005 all ECB publications will feature a motif taken from the 50 banknote. This paper can be downloaded without charge from http or from the Social Science Research Network electronic library at http abstract_id 648002. I I am grateful to Laurence Ball Thomas Lubik Christopher Carroll Benoit Mojon Adrian Pagan an anonymous referee and seminar participants at the European Central Bank and Johns Hopkins University for many helpful comments and suggestions. 2 The Johns Hopkins University Department of Economics 3400 N. Charles Street Baltimore MD 21218 USA e-mail European Central Bank 2005 Address Kaiserstrasse 29 60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany Postal address Postfach 16 03 19 60066 Frankfurt am Main Germany Telephone 49 69 1344 0 Internet http Fax 49 69 1344 6000 Telex 411 144 ecb d All rights reserved. Reproduction for educational and noncommercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank. The statement of purpose for the ECB Working Paper Series is available from the ECB website http . ISSN 1561-0810 print ISSN 1725-2806 online

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