TAILIEUCHUNG - Demographic composition and projections of car use in Austria

The UI Modernization Act made $7 billion in incentive payments available to states to encourage them to reform their UI programs. States could receive one-third of their incentive payment by adopting an alternative base period, which allows workers with shorter, more recent work histories to be eligible for UI benefits. A total of 41 states received their one-third share, including 21 states that responded with legislative changes. States could receive the remaining two-thirds of their incentive payments for adopting two of the following policies designed to expand UI eligibility: allowing workers who were employed part-time previously to continue receiving. | Max-Planck-Institut fur demografische Forschung Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Doberaner Strasse 114 D-18057 Rostock GERMANY Tel 49 0 3 81 20 81 - 0 Fax 49 0 3 81 20 81 - 202 http MPIDR WORKING PAPER WP 2002-034 AUGUST 2002 Demographic composition and projections of car use in Austria Alexia Prskawetz fuernkranz@ Jiang Leiwen Brian C. O Neill Copyright is held by the authors. Working papers of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research receive only limited review. Views or opinions expressed in working papers are attributable to the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute. Demographic composition and projections of car use in Austria1 2 3 Alexia Prskawetz2 3 Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Rostock Germany Jiang Leiwen Institute of Population Research Peking University and Watson Institute for International Studies Brown University USA Brian C. ONeill International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg Austria and Watson Institute for International Studies Brown University USA Abstract Understanding the factors driving demand for transportation in industrialized countries is important in addressing a range of environmental issues. Though noneconomic factors have received less attention recent research has found that demographic factors are important. While some studies have applied a detailed demographic composition to analyze past developments of transportation demand projections for the future are mainly restricted to aggregate demographic variables such as numbers of people and or households. In this paper we go beyond previous work by combining cross-sectional analysis of car use in Austria with detailed household projections. We show that projections of car use are sensitive to the particular type of demographic disaggregation employed. For example the highest projected car use - an increase of about 20 per cent between 1996 and 2046 - is obtained if we apply the

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