TAILIEUCHUNG - Modeling Barriers to International Capital Flows: A Multicountry Framework

To explain the bias in favor of domestic securities known as the “international diversification puzzle,” the literature has considered many possible irritants of capital movements across national boundaries but the results remain inconclusive. This paper demonstrates that this complex multivariate problem can be addressed within an analytic hierarchy process (AHP)-driv en expert system. The AHP can be modeled to select an optimal investment portfolio (OIP), herein a multinational portfolio composed of national markets where barriers to capital flows are least likely to adversely affect its return. Experts examined these barriers in relation to six national markets and the euro. | Modeling Barriers to International Capital Flows A Multicountry Framework A. SeddikMeziani Montclair State University USA Abstract To explain the bias in favor of domestic securities known as the international diversification puzzle the literature has considered many possible irritants of capital movements across national boundaries but the results remain inconclusive. This paper demonstrates that this complex multivariate problem can be addressed within an analytic hierarchy process AHP -driven expert system. The AHP can be modeled to select an optimal investment portfolio OIP herein a multinational portfolio composed of national markets where barriers to capital flows are least likely to adversely affect its return. Experts examined these barriers in relation to six national markets and the euro zone. The . turns out to be their market of choice closely followed by Canada and the Euro Zone. There is gain to be made from using the opinion of those with firsthand understanding of foreign markets and knowledge-based expert systems such as the AHP are best suited to capture that expertise. Introduction The underlying theoretical basis of diversification formalized in Markowitz Portfolio Theory and the Capital Asset Pricing Model has been well documented in the finance literature. International diversification enables investors to reduce the unsystematic risk of investing in one economy. Business cycles do not happen uniformly across countries when one country is experiencing rapid growth another may be in a recession. By investing across countries investors should logically eliminate from their portfolios part of the cyclical fluctuations that would arise from the domestic business cycle. Such investors will only be exposed to systematic risk related to the global economy. Since Markowitz s seminal work 1952 many of the studies that have explored the merit of holding international assets as a part of a strategically balanced portfolio confirm diversification as .

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