TAILIEUCHUNG - MONETARY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM: A VIEW FROM A HIGH INFLATIONARY ENVIRONMENT

As a starting point, we look at publications from investment banks and at the development of interest rate swap spreads around key fiscal policy events. The euro interest rate swap spread seems to be a good indicator of the relative risk of private versus government long-term bonds versus the private inter-bank market. The main result of our review of investment bank newsletters and notes is that market participants closely observe and contribute to the debate on the SGP and its implementation. But they do not share a unanimous view on specific aspects of institutional credibility and the optimal implementation. Correspondingly, we only find a significant. | THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY MONETARY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM A VIEW FROM A HIGH INFLATIONARY ENVIRONMENT Gulbin AHINBEYOGLU RESEARCH DEPARTMENT Discussion Paper No 2001 1 ANKARA January 2001 All the views expressed in this paper belong to the author and do not represent the views of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. Prepared by The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Head Office Research Department istiklal Cad. 10 06100 Ulus ANKARA TURKEY For additional copies please address to The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Head Office General Secretariat Library and Documentation Division istiklal Cad. 10 06100 Ulus ANKARA TURKEY 1 MONETARY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM A VIEW FROM A HIGH INFLATIONARY ENVIRONMENT Gulbin SAHINBEYOGLU Research Department The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey 06100 Ulus Ankara Turkey E-mail ABSTRACT This study examines the basic features of the monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey in the context of a small aggregate macroeconomic model. The core equations of the model consist of aggregate demand wage-price setting uncovered interest rate parity and a monetary policy rule as well more unique features of the Turkish monetary transmission. The model describes how agents set wages and prices in a high inflation economy. Changes in exchange rates and interest rates are the primary references informing expectations and wage and prices adjust very quickly compared to economies such as the UK. Another idiosyncratic feature of Turkey is the importance of the high levels of government debt. Following Flood and Marion 1996 and Werner 1996 we explicitly model this relationship between fiscal and monetary policy by allowing for a currency risk premium that depends on the share of Turkish-lira-denominated government debt in GDP. The results show how if monetary and fiscal policy are not co-ordinated the monetary transmission mechanism is weak and unstable because of the effect of interest

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