TAILIEUCHUNG - Encyclopedia of Finance Part 6

Chapter 9 CONDITIONAL ASSET PRICING. Abstract Conditional asset pricing studies predictability in the returns of financial assets, and the ability of asset pricing models to explain this predictability. The relation between predictability and asset pricing models is explained and the empirical evidence for predictability is summarized. | Chapter 9 CONDITIONAL ASSET PRICING WAYNE E. FERSON Boston College USA Abstract Conditional asset pricing studies predictability in the returns of financial assets and the ability of asset pricing models to explain this predictability. The relation between predictability and asset pricing models is explained and the empirical evidence for predictability is summarized. Empirical tests of conditional asset pricing models are then briefly reviewed. KeyWords stochastic discount factors financial asset returns predictability rational expectations conditional expectations discount rates stock prices minimum-variance portfolios mean variance efficiency latent variables capital asset pricing models market price of risk multiple-beta models . Introduction Conditional Asset Pricing refers to a subset of Asset Pricing research in financial economics. See Chapter 8. Conditional Asset Pricing focuses on predictability over time in rates of return on financial assets and the ability of asset pricing models to explain this predictability. Most asset pricing models are special cases of the fundamental equation Pt Et mt i Pt i Dt i where Pt is the price of the asset at time t and Dt 1 is the amount of any dividends interest or other payments received at time t 1. The market-wide random variable mt 1 is the stochastic discount factor SDF . By recursive substitution in Equation the future price may be eliminated to express the current price as a function of the future cash flows and SDFs only Pt Et Pj 0 nk 1 mt klDt j . Prices are obtained by discounting the payoffs or multiplying by SDFs so that the expected present value of the payoff is equal to the price. A SDF prices the assets if Equation is satisfied and any particular asset pricing model may be viewed as a specification for the stochastic discount factor. The notation Et . in Equation denotes the conditional expectation given a market-wide information set Vt. Empiricists don t get to see Vt so it is .

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