TAILIEUCHUNG - Lecture Judgment in managerial decision making (8e) - Chapter 3: Common biases

After studying this chapter, you should be able to: Articulate the role of the external environment in management decisions and effectiveness, explain the five major dimensions of an organization’s general environment, describe the critical forces in the organization’s task environment, | Judgment in Managerial Decision Making 8e Chapter 3 Common Biases Copyright 2013 John Wiley & Sons As noted previously, we tend to use heuristics, or rules of thumb, to reduce the complexity of our decisions. Often, these heuristics allow us to make effective decisions in a short amount of time. However, under the right set of circumstances they can also lead us into making biased decisions. Avoiding the biases that come with the use of heuristics is so difficult that even the most intelligent people are prone to error. Before introducing key biases, take a few minutes to answer the following questions. Write down your answers. 1 Problem 1: Causes of Death Rank order causes of death Estimate death rates Rank Cause of Death Deaths in 2009 War and civil conflict Nutritional deficiencies, including starvation Respiratory infections, lung cancers, and lung diseases This problem will require you to estimate death rates in 2009. Note that the world population was billion in 2008. For

• Quản trị kinh doanh
• Managerial decision making
• Judgment in managerial decision making
• Decision making
• Common biases
• Batting averages
• Ethics in decision making
• Fairness in decision making
• Improving decision making
• Strategies for better decisions
• Operations strategy
• Product design objectives
• Anatomy of decisions
• System 1 thinking
• System 2 thinking
• Making rational decisions
• Claiming value in negotiation
• Game theoretic approaches
• Emotional influences
• Decision mak
• Implicit attitudes
• Social responsibility
• Individual ethics
• Ethical decision making
• Lecture Management
• Managerial environment
• Decision making model
• Administrative model
• Forms of overconfidence
• Consequences of overestimation
• Bounded awareness
• Role playing exercise
• The reversal of preferences
• Big positive gamble
• Perceptions of certainty
• Common investment mistakes
• Poor investment decisions
• Investment decisions
• Negotiator cognition
• Common mistakes of negotiators
• Escalation of conflict