TAILIEUCHUNG - The Economic Outlook and Macroeconomic Policy

So long as there is no international government; so long as there is anarchy between states; so long can there be no permanent local, municipal, domestic law in one state either. Just as there are frontieres sans medicins, so politics has few real frontiers. Many non- governmental organisations are financed by other countries’ governments for governmental purposes, not all of them benign. Things fall apart. Unannounced, and confused with the ordinary, war will fly in a window on a lazy September day. From confusion to fusion: the next nine-eleven will be nuclear, of course. No one knows where. | For release on delivery 12 30 . EST February 3 2011 The Economic Outlook and Macroeconomic Policy Remarks by Ben S. Bernanke Chairman Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at the National Press Club Washington . February 3 2011 Good afternoon. I am pleased to be here at the National Press Club and I m especially glad for the opportunity to have a conversation with journalists who write about economic policy from our nation s capital. Your job is not easy but it is essential. Virtually every American is affected by developments in the economy and in economic policy. But contemporary economic issues can be highly complex and few nonspecialists have the time or the background to master these issues on their own. The public must therefore rely on the diligent reporting clear thinking and lucid writing of reporters determined to go beyond dueling bumper stickers and sound bites to help people understand what they need to make good decisions both in their personal finances and at the polls. These are weighty responsibilities and the journalists I know take them very seriously. Today I will provide a brief update on the economy and how I expect it to evolve in the near term. Then I will turn to the implications for monetary policy. Finally I will briefly discuss the daunting fiscal challenges that we face as a nation. The Economic Outlook The economic recovery that began in the middle of 2009 appears to have strengthened in recent months although to date growth has not been fast enough to bring about a significant improvement in the job market. The early phase of the recovery in the second half of 2009 and in early 2010 was largely attributable to the stabilization of the financial system the effects of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies and a strong boost to production from businesses rebuilding their depleted inventories. But economic growth slowed significantly last spring as the impetus from - 2 - inventory building and fiscal stimulus .

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