TAILIEUCHUNG - The US automotive product pipeline Car Wars 2010-2013

Like several other implements of child abuse, motor vehicles are household necessities. If not used properly, however, they can be deadly weapons. A ride in the family van, sports utility vehicle (SUV), pickup truck or sedan can become lethal if adults do not take appropriate precautions, including using proper child restraints and avoiding DUI restraints. Further, when an adult leaves an unsupervised child in an automobile, the adult takes an almost unconscionable risk, subjecting the child to a myriad of life-threatening situations, including heat exhaustion, suffocation, and physical injury. This monograph addresses motor vehicle occupant protection. | The US automotive product pipeline Car Wars 2010-2013 Industry Overview Equity United States Autos Car Manufacturers Auto Parts 15 July 2009 Bankof America Merrill Lynch RESEARCH H n-depth study of the . automotive product pipeline Car Wars is an annual proprietary study that assesses the relative strength of automakers product pipeline in the . The purpose is to quantify industry product trends and then relate our findings to investment decisions. Product pipelines more difficult to predict than ever before Given the current tenuous state of the . auto industry forecasting the future product pipeline is more difficult than ever but it is critical to understanding the industry so we will once again take our best shot. Macro demand meltdown a game changer The severe downturn in demand in 2008 and 2009 has dramatically altered our conclusions from last year s study. We believe that the impact will be long lasting and put GM and Chrysler at a larger disadvantage relative to Ford. Car Wars thesis and investment relevance We believe the replacement rate drives showroom age which drives market share which in turn drives capacity utilization profitability and stock and bond prices. OEMs with the highest replacement rate and youngest relative showroom age have gained market share from 1999-2009 Table 1 . We expect this relationship to remain over our forecast period of MY2010-13 Charts 1 2 . Five key findings of our study 1 Replacement rate showroom age are major determinants of market share. 2 Product activity is sporadic among OEMs and relative gaps are opening again. 3 GM s market share will likely drop below the targeted range of 18 -19 . 4 Ford s market share gains should continue driving upside in estimates. 5 Chrysler s product pipeline is dubious and likely to drive market share losses. Investment implications GM Product cycle downshifts GM s market share losses are likely to be greater than expected and more severe in CY2009 and CY2010 while easing in .

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