TAILIEUCHUNG - Monetary Policy in the Eurozone: Evaluating the European Central Bank’s interest rate decisions and the needs of member states using a Taylor rule

Our results suggest that both monetary policy and capital in ows shocks have a signi cant and positive effect on house prices, credit to the private sector and residential investment. The effects of both shocks are greater in countries with a higher degree of mortgage market development, with the effect of monetary policy shocks roughly doubling. This suggests that excessive nancial innovation may act as a propagation mechanism. The existence of mortgage-backed securities has a much larger effect on the transmission of capital in ows shocks. Legislation permitting the issuance of mortgage-backed securities increases the impact of capital in ows shocks on real house prices, real residential investment and real credit. | Monetary Policy in the Eurozone Evaluating the European Central Bank s interest rate decisions and the needs of member states using a Taylor rule Tejasvi TJ Srivangipuram University of California Berkeley Department of Economics Undergraduate Honors Thesis Thesis Advisor Professor Maurice Obstfeld Abstract The policies of the European Central Bank and its limitations have been at the core of a debate over the viability of the Eurozone that has only intensified during the area s current economic crisis. What is the significance of one size does not fit all This paper studies the monetary policy decisions of the European Central Bank and how well they suit the needs of the member states using a basic Taylor Rule. It then investigates the impacts of these differentials on the various different crises that are plaguing the Euro area. Acknowledgements I would like to thank Professor Obstfeld for his valuable insight advice and guidance throughout my work on this thesis. Srivangipuram 1 I. Introduction Since the creation of the Euro in 1999 there has been a longstanding debate about the effects of the monetary union on its member countries. The recent economic crisis has intensified this debate and the questioning of the long-term viability of the Eurozone as the prospect of a breakup of the euro is increasingly viewed as possible. 1 While the potential fiscal and political causes of the Eurozone s current predicament are important in analyzing the state of Europe s economies focusing on the arenas of monetary policy and European Central Bank decision making may also provide valuable insights regarding Europe s recent concerns. One major question is whether the European Central Bank s policies are optimal for all the countries in the Eurozone or if they disproportionately favor certain countries in the monetary union at the expense of others. For example last year s decision to increase the interest rate led to criticism that the ECB is tightening when only Germany even

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