TAILIEUCHUNG - DEAR CLIENT, SAVE THE DATE “ESN EUROPEAN CONFERENCE” London, 11th December 2012

So, our real business cycle model cannot simultaneously generate a rise in the price of capital and a rise in investment, in response to a signal about future produc- tivity. The real business cycle model has two additional shortcomings. It generates an extremely large jump in the real interest rate and it generates very little per- sistence. It really only generates a boom-bust pattern in consumption, investment, employment and output when the signal is about a shock that will occur four quar- ters in the future. If the signal is about a shock, say, 12 quarters in the future, agents go on an 8 quarter vacation and. | ESN Analyser ESN Investment Research 29 November 2012 DEAR CLIENT SAVE THE DATE ESN EUROPEAN CONFERENCE London 11th December 2012 The Merchant Taylor s Hall 30 Threadneedle Street - London EC2R8JB ESN Top Picks Roadshows Corporate Events RECOMMENDATION CHANGES Talanx Group Initiation of Coverage Buy from Initiation Initiation of coverage Buy TP EUR Unipol Ord. upgraded to Accumulate from Hold Feedback from CC with Unipol chief finance officer ZON Multimedia downgraded to Accumulate from Buy Valuation update Banca MPS downgraded to Reduce from Hold Additional State aid to cover derivatives losses SECTOR NEWS Nordic Banks Norges Bank softens its statement regarding mortgage risk weights Construction Materials US construction the housing sector is brightening up Oil Gas Producers BP temporarily banned from new US contracts BLUE CHIPS COMPANY NEWS Ahold Hold Cost savings effort increased Banco Popular Accumulate Rights issue Preferred subscription period ends Colruyt Hold 1H12 13 preview Fiat Industrial Buy Simpler is better Iberdrola Buy Rating cut Lottomatica Accumulate Placement of EUR 500m long 7-year March 2020 maturity senior unsecured notes offering PPR Buy Things are gradually taking shape Repsol Buy Announces interim dividend Snam Hold Gas pipes in the South of France Talanx Group Buy Initiation of coverage Buy TP EUR Telefonica Buy High acceptance 97 for preference share swap Produced Distributed by the Members of ESN see last page of this report ESN SMALL MID CAPS COMPANY NEWS Almirall Buy The EMEA approves Linaclotide for IBS-c in adults Ansaldo STS Accumulate Siemens will buy Invensys Rail Atria Buy More moderate financial targets CMD on Tuesday BES Buy BES announces the final price for the USD 450m Exchangeable Bonds linked to the common shares of Banco Bradesco Ellaktor Buy Announcement of 3Q 12 results today after market close Folli Follie Group Buy Release of 3Q12 results today post market close FondiariaSai Accumulate Rumours about merger

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