TAILIEUCHUNG - The Future of Stock Exchanges in Emerging Economies: Evolution and Prospects

In this paper, we follow Lanne, L utkepohl, and Maciejowska (2010), and obtain over-identifying information from Markov switching variance models to test whether the assumed long run structural restrictions are appropri- ate or not. Markov switching variance VAR models provide over-identifying information from decomposition of covariance matrices across states to test the assumed structural restrictions, which is essential for the correct identi- cation of fundamental and nonfundamental shocks. | Wharton Financial Institutions Center The Future of Stock Exchanges in Emerging Economies Evolution and Prospects by Stijn Claessens Daniela Klingebiel Sergio L. Schmukler 02-03 The Wharton School University of Pennsylvania The Wharton Financial Institutions Center The Wharton Financial Institutions Center provides a multi-disciplinary research approach to the problems and opportunities facing the financial services industry in its search for competitive excellence. The Center s research focuses on the issues related to managing risk at the firm level as well as ways to improve productivity and performance. The Center fosters the development of a community of faculty visiting scholars and . candidates whose research interests complement and support the mission of the Center. The Center works closely with industry executives and practitioners to ensure that its research is informed by the operating realities and competitive demands facing industry participants as they pursue competitive excellence. Copies of the working papers summarized here are available from the Center. If you would like to learn more about the Center or become a member of our research community please let us know of your interest. Franklin Allen Co-Director Richard J. erring Co-Director The Working Paper Series is made possible by a generous grant from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation The Future of stock Exchanges in Emerjinj Economies EYolution and Prospects by Stijn Claessens Daniela Klingebiel and Sergio L. Schmukler February 4 2002 Abstract We study the determinants of stock market development and the growing migration of capital raising listing and trading activity to international exchanges. Economies with better fundamentals have larger and more liquid markets. As fundamentals improve however the degree of migration to international exchanges also increases. This leads to gains for corporations in the form of lower costs and more liquidly-traded shares. Fully-fledged local stock .

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