TAILIEUCHUNG - Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations

For some small businesses, the security of their information, systems, and networks might not be a high priority, but for their customers, employees, and trading partners it is very important. The term Small Enterprise (or Small Organization) is sometimes used for this same category of business or organization. A small enterprise/organization may also be a nonprofit organization. The size of a small business varies by type of business, but typically is a business or organization with up to 500 In the United States, the number of small businesses totals to over 95% of all businesses | Journal of Economic Perspectives Volume 13 Number 2 Spring 1999 Pages 23-44 Changes in Business Cycles Evidence and Explanations Christina D. Romer In his 1959 Presidential Address to the American Economic Association Arthur Burns 1960 p. 1 predicted if not the end of business cycles in the United States at least progress towards economic stability. The advent of stabilization policy the end of bank runs and structural changes in the economy all seemed destined to radically reduce short-run economic fluctuations in the postwar era. In Burns s p. 17 words T he business cycle is unlikely to be as disturbing or troublesome to our children as it once was to our fathers. This essay analyzes to what extent Burns s prediction of growing stability in the post-World War II United States has come to pass. It also examines the reasons for continuity and change in economic fluctuations over time. The hrst section of the paper presents a compilation of facts about short-run fluctuations in real economic activity in the United States since the late 1800s. I put particular emphasis on data series that I believe are consistent across the entire 20th century and focus especially on the comparison between the periods before World War I and after World War II. The bottom line of this analysis is that economic fluctuations have changed somewhat over time but neither as much nor in the way envisioned by Burns. Major real macroeconomic indicators have not become dramatically more stable between the pre-World War I and post-World War II eras and recessions have become only slightly less severe on average. Recessions have however become less frequent and more uniform over time. In the second section of the paper I suggest a likely explanation for the changes we do and do not see in the data. In this explanation the rise of macroeconomic policy emphasized by Burns plays a crucial role. Increasing government control of aggregate demand in the postwar era has served to dampen many recessions

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