TAILIEUCHUNG - Recent Trends in Crude Oil Stock Levels

If, on the other hand, we allow the traders to adapt to new market observations at a more realistic rate, heterogeneous beliefs persist, and the market self-organizes into a complex regime. A rich “market psychology”—a rich set of expectations—becomes observable. Technical trading emerges as a profitable activity, and temporary bubbles and crashes occur from time to time. Trading volume is high, with times of quiescence alternating with times of intense market activity. The price time series shows persistence in volatility, the characteristic GARCH signature of price series from actual financial markets. And it shows persistence in trading volume. And over the period of our experiments, at. | Recent Trends in Crude Oil Stock Levels by Aileen A. Bohn Energy Information Administration EIA data for March 1996 primary inventories of crude oil were the lowest recorded in almost 20 years. Crude oil inventories which were generally on a downward trend since the beginning of 1995 fell below the average range in July 1995 and have yet to recover Figure FE1 . On September 27 1996 crude oil stocks registered 303 million barrels compared to a normal range of nearly 311 to 332 million barrels for Low crude oil inventories can cause price volatility in crude oil When inventories are low refiners resort to purchasing supplemental crude oil supplies to fill immediate needs driving the price of crude oil higher. Low crude oil inventories can also lead to gasoline distillate and jet fuel supply problems. This article the third in a series of three3 on petroleum stocks attempts to identify the components of the decline in the EIA crude oil stock data. To accomplish this comprehensive data on pipelines tank farms and refineries are combined with other information on prices and industry activity. Except where noted this analysis examines EIA survey data4 covering January 1995 through July 1996 latest available detailed data and excludes stocks held in the Federally owned Strategic 1Energy Information Administration Weekly Petroleum Status Report EIA-0208 96-38 Washington DC October 2 1996 pp. 6 and 39. All discussions of normal range or lower bound refer to the deseasonalized 3 year average range referencing the period from January 1993 through December 1995. . Department of Energy An Analysis of Gasoline Markets Spring 1996 DOE PO-0046 Washington DC June 1996 p. 4. 3The prior two articles include Energy Information Administration Recent Distillate Fuel Oil Inventory Trends What EIA Data Show and Recent Trends in Motor Gasoline Stock Levels Petroleum Marketing Monthly DOE EIA-0380 96 06 Washington DC June 1996 pp. xv-xxviii. 4Energy Information .

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