TAILIEUCHUNG - A textbook of Computer Based Numerical and Statiscal Techniques part 45

A textbook of Computer Based Numerical and Statiscal Techniques part 45. By joining statistical analysis with computer-based numerical methods, this book bridges the gap between theory and practice with software-based examples, flow charts, and applications. Designed for engineering students as well as practicing engineers and scientists, the book has numerous examples with in-text solutions. | 426 COMPUTER BASED NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES 3jU 300 - A 250 - w 200 - --7 150 - 100 - 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 FIG. COMPONENT OF TIME SERIES The analysis of Time Series consists of the description and measurement of various changes or movements as they appear in the series during a period of time. These changes or movements are called the components of elements of time series. Fluctuations in a time series are mainly due to four basic types of variations or movements . These four types of component are 1. Secular Trend or Long Term Movement T 2. Seasonal Variation or Seasonal Movement S 3. Cyclical Fluctuation or Cyclic Variation C 4. Residual Irregular of Random Movement I 1 Secular Trend In Business Economics and in our daily conversation the term Secular Trend or simply trend is popularly used. Where we speak of rising trend of population or prices we mean the gradual increase in population or prices over a period of Time. Similarly by declining trend of production or sales we mean gradual decrease in production or sales over a period of time. The concept of trend does not include short range Oscillations but refers to the steady movement over a long period time. Secular trend is the smooth regular and long term movement of a series showing continuous growth stagnation or decline over a long period of time. Graphically it exhibits general direction and shape of time series . The trend movement of an economic time series may be upward or downward. The upward trend may be due to population growth technological advances improved methods of Business Organization and Management etc. Similarly the downward trend may be due to lack of demand for the product storage of raw materials to be used in production decline in death rate due to advance in medical sciences etc. 2 Seasonal Variation Seasonal variation is a short-term periodic movement which occurs more or less regularly within a stipulated period of one year or shorter. The

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