TAILIEUCHUNG - Forecasts of the Vietnamese socio-macroeconomy in the period of 2016-2020

The forecasts show that in the period of 2016-2020, the average annual economic growth of Vietnam is unlikely to exceed 6% due to the lack of improvement in the dynamics and quality of growth. | VEPR VEPR Policy Discussion Note PD-02 Forecasts of the Vietnamese socio-macroeconomy in the period of 2016-2020 VEPR Research Department VEPR Policy Discussion Note PD - 01 Forecasts of the Vietnamese socio-macroeconomy in the period of 2016-2020 VEPR Research Department Supported by Australian Government Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Australian Government 1. ASSESSMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOCIO-MACROECONOMY IN THE PERIOD OF 2011-2015 This section highlights the key economic indicators in the period of 2011-2015 compared to the targets set in the Resolution of the 11thNational Party Congress. Table 1 compares the targets with the performance of each year the average of the period of 20112015 or the figure at the end of the period. Figures for the years 2014 and 2015 were forecast. Figures showed that 8 out of 12 key economic indicators of the whole set of socio-economic development indicators underperformed as highlighted . The most noticeable are the outcomes of economic growth and the growth of value-added in the industry-construction sector which were significantly lower than planned. It resulted from the fact that 1 the global financial crisis -economic slowdown caused more severe impacts than expected and that 2 domestic reforms did not bring viable results in the context of the increasingly inefficient economy. Regarding the first reason the over-optimism of the assessment and prediction of the ones who were in charge of making forecast were to blame for not taking into account the accurate impacts of the global financial crisis as well as overestimating the ability of the economy to recover. If the assessment had been more in line with reality the targets would have been lowered. For instance an average annual GDP growth rate of or an average growth rate of 7 in value-added of industrial production would be more plausible. However even in the case of more realistic planning the targets of .

• Kinh tế học
• Vietnamese socio macroeconomy
• Socio macroeconomy
• Forecasts of the Vietnamese
• Assessment on the development
• The Vietnamese economic growth
• Financial stresses
• Economic growth
• Threshold vector autoregression
• Vietnamese economic growth
• Estimation of the inflation threshold
• Economics and business
• Current development state of Vietnamese service sector
• Vietnamese service sector
• Socio economic development strategy
• Economic growth and social
• European Union Free Trade Agreement
• Vietnamese businesses
• Country's economic growth
• International economic integration
• Vietnamese enterprises
• Local governance
• Private investment
• Sys GMM estimation
• Vietnamese provinces
• Small and medium enterprises
• Economic restructuring
• Vietnamese economy
• Socio economic development
• Interest rate
• Banking industry development
• Banking credits
• Gross domestic product
• Granger causality
• Oil prices
• Vietnamese stock market index
• Crude oil prices
• Economic growth of Vietnam
• Integrate CPTPP
• Economic development growth
• Domestic and international markets
• Quality and significance of CPTPP
• Law education
• Non law student
• Vietnamese university
• Social development
• Government agency
• Private sector
• Industrial revolution 4 0
• Vietnam's private sector plays
• Job creation
• Income generation
• Factors affecting CO2 emission in Vietnam
• Panel data analysis
• Factors affecting CO2 emission
• The Vietnamese economy
• The economic growth
• Trade openness positively influence the CO2 emissions