TAILIEUCHUNG - Quantitative Risk Analysis for Project Management A Critical Review

The goal of this book is to provide a step-by-step guideline for managing projects in general, and managing distance education projects in particular. It is directed at two audiences, namely, practitioners who find themselves having to run numerous projects, both big and small, on a day-to-day basis, and open and distance learning practitioners who are team members of projects within their institutions. The writers are also hopeful that the book will be useful to aspiring professionals whose wish is to undertake specific projects. The principles and theories about project management they come across, will go a long way in. | WORKING P A P E R Quantitative Risk Analysis for Project Management A Critical Review LIONEL GALWAY WR-112-RC February 2004 This product is part of the RAND Corporation working paper series. RAND working papers are intended to share researchers latest findings and to solicit informal peer review. They have been approved for circulation but have not been formally edited or peer reviewed. Unless otherwise indicated working papers can be quoted and cited without permission of the author provided the source is clearly referred to as a working paper. RAND s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. RAND is a registered trademark. RAND CORPORATION iii PREFACE This paper is the final report of the RAND Internal Research and Development IR D project Risk Management and Risk Analysis for Complex Projects Developing a Research Agenda. The aim of the project was to survey how quantitative risk management and risk analysis methods were applied to the planning and execution of complex projects particularly those which planned to utilize new and untried technologies. One recent RAND study indicated that such methods while widely advocated were not used to plan and manage a critical government satellite development project. This paper recommends several research areas in which RAND could contribute to evaluating the utility of these methods and improving their applicability. This paper results from RAND s continuing program of self-sponsored independent research. Support for such research is provided in part by donors and by the independent research and development provisions of RAND s contracts for the operation of its . Department of Defense federally funded research and development .

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