TAILIEUCHUNG - Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update John Y. Campbell and Robert J. Shiller

Equally important, negotiators should focus early on obtaining a North Korean commitment that it will halt illicit procurements from abroad for its nuclear programs and end the proliferation of its nuclear technology. The latter is especially important for negotiations to establish in a verifiable manner. While waiting for negotiations to bear fruit, the United States and its allies will face two interconnected challenges. They must slow down North Korea’s centrifuge program, or at least make progress more costly and visible to the international community. In addition, they must ensure that North Korea does not. | Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook An Update John Y. Campbell and Robert J. Shiller ABSTRACT The use of price-earnings ratios and dividend-price ratios as forecasting variables for the stock market is examined using aggregate annual US data 1871 to 2000 and aggregate quarterly data for twelve countries since 1970. Various simple efficient-markets models of financial markets imply that these ratios should be useful in forecasting future dividend growth future earnings growth or future productivity growth. We conclude that overall the ratios do poorly in forecasting any of these. Rather the ratios appear to be useful primarily in forecasting future stock price changes contrary to the simple efficient-markets models. This paper is an update of our earlier paper 1998 to take account of the remarkable behavior of the stock market in the closing years of the twentieth century. John Y. Campbell Department of Economics Littauer Center 213 Harvard University Cambridge MA 02138 and NBER john_campbell@ Robert J. Shiller Department of Economics Yale University . Box 208281 New Haven CT 06520-8281 and NBER Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook An Update1 2 3 John Y. Campbell and Robert J. Shiller4 When stock market valuation ratios are at extreme levels by historical standards as dividend-price and price-earnings ratios have been for some years in the US one naturally wonders what this means for the stock market outlook. It seems reasonable to suspect that prices are not likely ever to drift too far from their normal levels relative to indicators of fundamental value such as dividends or earnings. Thus it seems natural to give at least some weight to the simple mean-reversion theory that when stock prices are very high relative to these indicators as they have been recently then prices will eventually fall in the future to bring the ratios back to more normal historical levels. The idea that they should

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