TAILIEUCHUNG - Báo cáo khoa học: "Ecology and ecophysiology of circum-Mediterranean firs in the context of climate change"

Tuyển tập các báo cáo nghiên cứu về lâm nghiệp được đăng trên tạp chí lâm nghiệp quốc tế đề tài: Ecology and ecophysiology of circum-Mediterranean firs in the context of climate change. | Ann. For. Sci. 59 2002 823-832 INRA EDP Sciences 2002 DOI forest 2002080 823 Original article Ecology and ecophysiology of circum-Mediterranean firs in the context of climate change Gilbert Aussenac UMR Écologie Écophysiologie forestière INRA - UHP Nancy 54280 Champenoux France Received 19 September 2001 accepted 26 March 2002 Abstract - In the expected climatic change scenario with increased temperatures and water deficits related to greenhouse effect phenomena questions are being raised concerning the migration of the potential range of forest specie contraction in the south and at lower altitudes extension towards the north and higher altitudes and the consequences on silviculture. To answer these questions information about climatic changes and the ecophysiology of the forest species concerned is required. In this paper the case of circum-Mediterranean firs is examined as they could be in danger in parts of their present range but could also provide valuable solutions for the replacement of other species in more northerly zones with temperate humid climates and that would not be adapted to new climatic conditions. We try to answer these questions using a simplified climatic analysis of the original ranges and knowledge about the ecology and ecophysiology of firs. In the original ranges of these species climatic data is rare and very incomplete. Under these conditions it is impossible to undertake a detailed climatological analysis. Also taking into account the diversity and heterogeneity of the climatic descriptions made by the various authors and so as to be able to compare the different firs species we used an aridity index. By taking a numerical approach this index allowed us to have a general and comparative view of the climatology of the original fir ranges in relation to drought problems and also to simulate evolution easily and compare it with the present situations for each species. On the basis of all the different results obtained it seems .

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