TAILIEUCHUNG - Contractual Savings or Stock Markets Development: Which Leads?

Although research on limits to arbitrage is far from played out, it is fair to say that a broad consensus is emerging with respect to the key ideas and modeling ingredients. This should not be too surprising, given that the relevant tools all come from neoclassical microeconomics: arbitrageurs can be modeled as fully rational, with no need to appeal to any behavioral or psychological biases. For example, the work on the liquidity constraints associated with delegated arbitrage can be thought of as embedding familiar theories from corporate finance into an asset-pricing framework. . | Contractual Savings or Stock Markets Development Which Leads Mario Catalan Gregorio Impavido and Alberto R. Musalem The World Bank Financial Sector Development Department Financial Sector Vice Presidency August 2000 Mario Catalan is . Candidate University of California at Los Angeles Gregorio Impavido is Financial Economist and Alberto R. Musalem is Advisor both in the Financial Sector Development Department of the World Bank. We appreciate comments received from Asli Demirguc-Kunt Victor J. Elias Robert Holzmann Patrick Honohan Augusto Iglesias Estelle James Robert Palacios Klaus Schimdt-Hebbel Thierry Tressel and Dimitri Vittas. The findings interpretation and conclusions are the authors own and should not be attributed to the World Bank its Executive Board of Directors or any of its member countries. - i - Table of Contents I II WHAT IS DIFFERENT ABOUT CONTRACTUAL SAVINGS .3 Specialization in the Financial Sector the Term Structure of Interest Rates and Growth. 5 Development of the Stock Market and Improved Financial Structure of Governments Banks and Firms and Reduced Sovereign Linkages Between Contractual Savings and Banking III THE ROLE OF CONTRACTUAL SAVINGS SOME SIMPLE NUMERICAL EXAMPLES. .8 The Structure of the Economy and the Role of the Financial Differential Impact of Contractual Savings and Mutual Funds on Capital Markets Contractual Savings Institutions Bias Towards Long-Term Assets and Shares A Simple IV DESCRIPTIVE V ECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE ON CONTRACTUAL SAVINGS AND CAPITAL MARKETS DEVELOPMENT WHICH LEADS .20 Granger causality between contractual savings and market capitalization or value Granger causality between pension funds and market capitalization or value Granger causality between life insurance and market capitalization or value Granger causality between non-life

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