TAILIEUCHUNG - This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises *

There are currently 15 states offering income-tax credits for renewable energy technologies, with nine states offering both personal and corporate tax credits. These programs are administered by state revenue departments or other state agencies. All but three of these 15 states consider both solar and wind technologies eligible for the incentive. Credits against income tax range from 10% to 35% of equipment and installation costs for both personal and corporate income-tax credits. Three states have performance-based credits. Maximum incentive amounts range from $1,000 to $10,500 for residential systems, and from $1,000 to no limit for corporate tax credits. Most tax. | April 16 2008 This Time is Different A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises Carmen M. Reinhart University of Maryland and NBER Kenneth S. Rogoff Harvard University and NBER Abstract This paper offers a panoramic analysis of the history of financial crises dating from England s fourteenth-century default to the current United States sub-prime financial crisis. Our study is based on a new dataset that spans all regions. It incorporates a number of important credit episodes seldom covered in the literature including for example defaults and restructurings in India and China. As the first paper employing this data our aim is to illustrate some of the broad insights that can be gleaned from such a sweeping historical database. We find that serial default is a nearly universal phenomenon as countries struggle to transform themselves from emerging markets to advanced economies. Major default episodes are typically spaced some years or decades apart creating an illusion that this time is different among policymakers and investors. A recent example of the this time is different syndrome is the false belief that domestic debt is a novel feature of the modern financial landscape. We also confirm that crises frequently emanate from the financial centers with transmission through interest rate shocks and commodity price collapses. Thus the recent US sub-prime financial crisis is hardly unique. Our data also documents other crises that often accompany default including inflation exchange rate crashes banking crises and currency debasements. JEL E6 F3 and NO The authors are grateful to Vincent Reinhart John Singleton Arvind Subramanian and seminar participants at Columbia and Harvard Universities for useful comments and suggestions and Ethan Ilzetzki Fernando Im and Vania Stavrakeva for excellent research assistance. I. Introduction The economics profession has an unfortunate tendency to view recent experience in the narrow window provided by standard datasets. .

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