TAILIEUCHUNG - Detecting important categorical land changes while accounting for persistence

We now turn to the potential benefits of having a more accurate estimate of Chemical A's true cost. As described above, this requires knowledge of the firm's ability to change its actions in response to better information. If the disposal cost X of Chemical A is revealed to be significant, how might the firm respond? This is a question that hinges primarily on the firm's technological options and the availability of substitute inputs. Substitutes can take a variety of forms. Most obviously, the firm might alter its production process by substituting some other chemical input for Chemical A. But substitutes. | Available online at SCIENCE Agriculture Ecosystems Environment ELSEVIER Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment 101 2004 251-268 locate agee Detecting important categorical land changes while accounting for persistence Robert G. Pontius Jr. Emily Shusas Menzie McEachern Department of International Development Community and Environment Graduate School of Geography Clark University 950 Main Street Worcester MA 01610-1477 USA Abstract The cross-tabulation matrix is a fundamental starting point in the analysis of land change but many scientists fail to analyze the matrix according to its various components and thus fail to gain as much insight as possible concerning the potential processes that determine a pattern of land change. This paper examines the cross-tabulation matrix to assess the total change of land categories according to two pairs of components net change and swap as well as gross gains and gross losses. Analysis of these components can distinguish between a clearly systematic landscape transition and a seemingly random landscape transition. Multiple resolution analysis provides additional information concerning the distances over which land change occurs. An example of change among four land categories in central Massachusetts illustrates the methods. These methods enable scientists to focus on the strongest signals of systematic landscape transitions which is necessary ultimately to link pattern to process. 2003 Elsevier . All rights reserved. Keywords Land change LUCC Massachusetts Matrix Model Pattern Process Scale Transition 1. Introduction . A fundamental problem If scientists judge a model s success by its ability to predict change correctly then it appears that many land-use change models are failing. Typically models extrapolate the change among land categories from time 1 to time 2. A validation procedure compares the models predictions of time 2 to a reference map from time 2. Usually the percent .

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