TAILIEUCHUNG - Valuing Employee Stock Options Part 5

Chapter 5: Applicability of Monte Carlo Simulation. Analyses in previous chapters clearly indicate that using the BSM alone is insufficient to measure the true fair-market value of ESOs. | 5 Applicability of Monte Carlo Simulation INTRODUCTION TO THE ANALYSIS Analyses in previous chapters clearly indicate that using the BSM alone is insufficient to measure the true fair-market value of ESOs. Option pricing has made vast strides since 1973 when Fischer Black and Myron Scholes published their path-breaking paper providing a model for valuing European options. While Black and Scholes derivations are mathematically complex other approaches broached in this book namely those using Monte Carlo simulation and binomial lattices provide much simpler applications but at the same time enable a similar wellspring of In fact applying binomial lattices with Monte Carlo simulation has been made much easier with the use of software and spreadsheets. This chapter focuses on the applicability of Monte Carlo simulation as it pertains to valuing stock options and as a means of simulating the inputs that go into a customized binomial lattice that is used in conjunction with binomial lattices. This chapter begins with a brief review of the three types of option pricing methodologies and continues with a quantitative assessment of their analytical robustness under different conditions. The simulation approach to valuing options will be shown to be precise when it comes to valuing simple European options without dividends. In contrast when it comes to American or mixed options with exotic features vesting forfeiture suboptimal behavior and blackout dates the simulation approach to valuing options breaks down and cannot be used. The binomial lattice is a much better candidate when these exotic elements exist. However Monte Carlo simulation still proves to be a powerful and useful tool for simulating the uncertain input variables with correlations and allows tens of thousands of scenarios to enter into a customized binomial lattice. It is shown later in this chapter that a precision-controlled simulation can in 51 52 IMPACTS OF THE NEW FAS 123 METHODOLOGY crease

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