TAILIEUCHUNG - Lecture Operations and supply chain management: The Core (3/e) – Chapter 3: Forecasting

The main goals of this chapter are to: Understand the role of forecasting as a basis for supply chain planning; identify the basic components of demand: average, trend, seasonal, and random variation; show how to make a time series forecast using moving averages, exponential smoothing, and regression; . | Forecasting Chapter 03 McGraw Hill Irwin Copyright 2013 by The McGraw Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved. Learning Objectives 1. Understand the role of forecasting as a basis for supply chain planning 2. Identify the basic components of demand average trend seasonal and random variation 3. Show how to make a time series forecast using moving averages exponential smoothing and regression 4. Use decomposition to forecast when trend and seasonality is present 5. Show how to measure forecast error 6. Describe the common qualitative forecasting techniques such as the Delphi method and collaborative forecasting 3 2 The Role of Forecasting Forecasting is a vital function and impacts every significant management decision Finance and accounting use forecasts as the basis for budgeting and cost control Marketing relies on forecasts to make key decisions such as new product planning and personnel compensation Production uses forecasts to select suppliers determine capacity requirements and to drive decisions about purchasing staffing and inventory Different roles require different forecasting approaches Decisions about overall directions require strategic forecasts Tactical forecasts are used to guide day-to-day 3 3 decisions Components of Demand Excel Components 3 4 Time Series Analysis Using the past to predict the future 3 5 Forecasting Method Selection Guide Fo re c as ting Me tho d Amo unt o f His to ric al Data Patte rn Fo re c as t Data Ho rizo n Simple moving 6 to 12 months weekly Stationary . no Short average data are often used trend or seasonality Weighted moving 5 to 10 observations Stationary Short average and simple needed to start exponential smoothing Exponential smoothing 5 to 10 observations Stationary and Short with trend needed to start trend Linear regression 10 to 20 observations Stationary trend Short to and seasonality Medium 3 6 Forecast Error Measurements Ideally MAD will be zero MAPE scales the forecast error no forecasting error to the .

• Quản trị kinh doanh
• Supply chain management
• Supply chain processes
• Supply chain
• Time series analysis
• Forecasting method
• Supply chain planning
• Manufacturing planning
• Control for supply chain management
• Supply chain logistics
• Management of supply chain logistics
• Supply chain logistics framework
• Warehouse replenishment systems
• Lecture Supply chain management
• Chuỗi cung ứng
• Quản lý chuỗi cung ứng
• Supply chain relationship management
• Global supply chain management
• Guide to supply chain management
• Source in supply chain management
• Guide to deliver in supply chain management
• Supply chains
• Operations planning
• Strategic sourcing initiatives
• Competitive supply chain
• Goods producing processes
• Effective operation
• Supply chain strategy
• Advances in supply chain management
• Supply chain analysis
• Advanced planning
• Essentials of supply chain management
• Supply chain operations
• Supply chain coordination
• Business strategy
• Measuring performance
• Supply chain metrics
• Supply chain opportunities
• Developing supply chain systems
• Logistics and supply chain management
• Synchronous supply chain
• Managing the global pipeline
• Managing risk in the supply chain
• Supply chain integration
• Strategic lead time management
• The synchronous supply chain
• The supply chain
• Lean supply chains
• Lean production
• Lean supply chain design