TAILIEUCHUNG - Electricity consumption and Economic growth in Vietnam: A cointegration and causality analysis

Electricity consumption and Economic growth in Vietnam: A cointegration and causality analysis. Using a cointegration and causality analysis, this paper investigates the causal relationship between electricity consump tion and economic growth in Vietnam dur-ing the period of 19 75-2010. | Journal of Economics and Development , , December 2011, pp. 24 - 36 ISSN 1859 0020 Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Vietnam: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis Le Quang Canh National Economics University, Vietnam Email: canh@ Abstract Using a cointegration and causality analysis, this paper investigates the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Vietnam during the period of 1975-2010. Empirical results show that there is no causality effect of per capita electricity consumption on per capita Gross domestic products (GDP) in both the short-run and long-run, but a causality relationship running from per capita GDP to per capita electricity consumption in the long-run. This result is helpful to understand the roles of economic growth on making energy policies in Vietnam to deal with the current electricity shortage accompanied with economic growth and to ensure national energy security. Keywords: electricity consumption, economic growth, cointegration, causality, Vietnam. JEL Classification: C22, Q40 Journal of Economics and Development 24 Vol. 13, , December 2011 1. Introduction and GDP is strong and popular (Anderson, 1973; Morimoto and Hope, 2004). Because the correlation does not show causality, those papers did not figure out the causal relationship and whether this relationship is bidirectional or unidirectional from one to the other or vice versa. Over the last two decades, Vietnam has been emerging as the fast economic growth country in the Southeast Asia. Accompanied by high economic growth, its electricity demand has steadily increased. In 2010, although Vietnam had gigawatts of installed electricity-generating capacity and produced billion kilowatt-hours of electricity commercial capacity, per capita electricity consumption remained among the lowest levels in the Asia and domestic electricity shortages became more serious. Vietnam has had to import a .

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