TAILIEUCHUNG - Application of echo state network for the forecast of air quality

A study on the application of Echo State Network (ESN) for the forecast of air quality in Hanoi for a period of seven days, which is based on the nonlinear relationships between the concentrations of an air pollutant to be forecasted and meteorological parameters, was conducted. | Tạp chí Khoa học và Công nghệ 54 (1) (2016) 54-63 APPLICATION OF ECHO STATE NETWORK FOR THE FORECAST OF AIR QUALITY Mac Duy Hung1, Nghiem Trung Dung2, * 1 Thai Nguyen University of Technology, 3-2 road, Tich Luong ward, Thai Nguyen city 2 Hanoi University of Science and Technology, 1 Dai Co Viet road, Hanoi * Email: Received: 23 March 2015; Accepted for publication: 10 September 2015 ABSTRACT A study on the application of Echo State Network (ESN) for the forecast of air quality in Hanoi for a period of seven days, which is based on the nonlinear relationships between the concentrations of an air pollutant to be forecasted and meteorological parameters, was conducted. Three air pollutants being SO2, NO2 and PM10 were selected for this study. Training data and testing data were extracted from the database of Lang air quality monitoring station, Hanoi, from 2003 to 2009. Values forecasted by ESN are compared with those by MLP (Multilayer Perception). Results shown that, in almost experiments, the performance of ESN is better than that of MLP in terms of the values and the correlation of concentration trends. The average of RMSE of ESN and MLP for SO2 are ppb and ppb, respectively. For PM10, the accuracy of ESN is % with MAE of µg/m3, while the accuracy of MLP is only % with MAE of µg/m3. For NO2, the performance of ESN and MLP is similar; the accuracy of both models is in the range of 60 % to %. These suggest that, ESN is a novel and feasible approach to build the air forecasting model. Keywords: forecast, air quality, ESN, MLP, ANN, Hanoi, Vietnam. 1. INTRODUCTION In recent years, forecasting models have been being an efficient tool in air quality management. They provide with more comprehensive information on the status and trend of air quality. With such information, authorities are capable of timely warning to help people prevent the negative effects of air pollution. Models that have been used for

• Môi trường
• Application of echo state network
• The forecast of air quality
• Echo State Network
• The nonlinear relationships
• The performance of ESN