TAILIEUCHUNG - True optimization of pavement maintenance options using what if models: an application of gradient search methods with HDM-4

What-if models of pavement management analysis such as RTIM, HERS and HDM-4 predict the consequences of different maintenance options to be tested that are specified exogenously. Therefore, although they are often used to “optimize” maintenance options, they are not optimizing them in its true sense; they are merely used to find the best options among those tested. Since there are usually infinite numbers of options, it is impossible to exhaust all of them and only suboptimal optimizers are found. The present paper proposes the use of gradient search methods with what-if models to find the true optima. It demonstrates through a case study the feasibility of the use of the steepest descent method and the conjugate gradient method along with HDM-4 to find the true optimum maintenance options. | Koji Tsunokawa Hiep Van Dinh and Riaz Ul-Islam 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 TRUE OPTIMIZATION OF PAVEMENT MAINTENANCE OPTIONS USING WHAT-IF MODELS AN APPLICATION OF GRADIENT SEARCH METHODS WITH HDM-4 by Koji Tsunokawa Corresponding Author Professor Graduate School of Civil Environmental Engineering Saitama University Saitama-shi Saitama-ken 255 Shimo-Okubo 338-8570 Japan. Phone 81 48 858 3825 Fax 81 48 858 3825 E-mail koji-t@ Hiep Van Dinh Master Student Graduate School of Civil Environmental Engineering Saitama University Saitama-shi Saitama-ken 255 Shimo-Okubo 338-8570 Japan. Phone 81 80 5020 4314 E-mail s03KC030@ and Riaz Ul-Islam Research Associate Graduate School of Civil Environmental Engineering Saitama University Saitama-shi Saitama-ken 255 Shimo-Okubo 338-8570 Japan. Phone 81 90 3806 7542 Fax 81 48 858 3565 E-mail sgd2952@ Paper submitted to Transportation Research Board Committee AFD10 August 1st 2004 Word Count Title 17 words Abstract 128 words Keywords 7 words Main Body Text 2 052 words 5 Tables 1 250 words 1 Figures 250 words 3 704 word equivalents Koji Tsunokawa Hiep Van Dinh and Riaz Ul-Islam 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 ABSTRACT What-if models of pavement management analysis such as RTIM HERS and HDM-4 predict the consequences of different maintenance options to be tested that are specified exogenously. Therefore although they are often used to optimize maintenance options they are not optimizing them in its true sense they are merely used to find the best options among those tested. Since there are usually infinite numbers of options it is impossible to exhaust all of them and only suboptimal optimizers are found. The present paper proposes the use of .

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