TAILIEUCHUNG - Economic projections for Belgium – Autumn 2011

Accounting relationships state definite facts about the world in relational terms. In particular, the national income identity (which simply states that total expenditure is the sum of its components) 8 implies, without need for further proof, that there is a reciprocal, offsetting relationship between public deficits and private savings. To be precise, the financial balance of the private sector (the excess of domestic saving over domestic investment) must always just equal the sum of the government budget deficit and the net export surplus. Thus increasing the public budget deficit increases net private savings (for an unchanged trade balance), and conversely: increasing net private savings increases the budget deficit | CONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR BELGIUM - AUTUMN 2011 Economic projections for Belgium -Autumn 2011 Introduction The vitality which underpinned the revival in global economic activity for two years rapidly faded during 2011 in a context of escalating uncertainty and worsening financial tensions. Up to the spring it seemed that the consolidation of the recovery which had begun in mid-2009 might continue particularly given the impetus of accommodating fiscal policies in the advanced economies and the vigour of the emerging economies. However this respite was apparently not enough to ensure sufficient progress in the thorough rectification of the imbalances revealed or caused by the first wave of the financial crisis and by the 2008-2009 economic recession. This time the financial tensions centred mainly on the government bond markets of certain euro area countries. Since the prospects for a reduction in the high level of public debt were not considered adequate to restore a sustainable long-term path - either because of deficiencies in the fiscal consolidation measures or because of doubts about the economy s growth potential - the yield differentials in relation to safe-haven assets increased dramatically. The obstacles hampering the implementation of the necessary structural measures in the various countries and at European level the debate over the economic safeguard mechanisms for economies encountering financing problems are greatly exacerbating the uncertainty for all economic agents. This environment is causing serious problems for financial institutions which hold large portfolios of government securities. These difficulties are not confined to the euro area since there is a similar debate on the fiscal policy to be conducted in the United States and that is also fostering the climate of uncertainty. Moreover the euro area s weakness could have an adverse effect on its trading partners. Given this uncertainty and the weakening of external demand the projections for .

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