TAILIEUCHUNG - ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK 2013

Another way to look at cross-country evidence is to look at the association between tax ratios and, not the level of prosper- ity, but the growth rate of prosperity. There have been a large number of studies about this concept in the last twenty years. Robert Barro of Harvard had an influential study several years back claiming to find that, while holding other determinants of growth constant, low tax rates and low government spending were associated with higher growth. However, there have been several studies since then showing that those empirical findings do not hold up to reasonable changes in the econometric ap- proach he used and the data he. | Advanced versus emerging economies GDP growth change year-over-year Source International Monetary Fund RBC Economics Research Forecasts Global PMI Composite Output SA 50 Expansion Source JP Morgan Markit RBC Economics Research Craig Wright Chief Economist 416-974-7457 Dawn Desjardins Assistant Chief Economist 416-974-6919 Paul Ferley Assistant Chief Economist 416-974-7231 Nathan Janzen Economist 416-974-0579 ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK March 2013 From stall speed to cruising speed Global policymakers pull together to bolster growth Globally policymakers are focused on returning the world economy to a firmer growth path in 2013. Both central banks and governments put in place policies that further reduced the risks of a severe downturn this year. The International Monetary Fund IMF acknowledged that the degree and timing of the implementation of harsh fiscal austerity measures were exerting greater than expected weight on the economies of the most indebted European countries thereby easing the pressure on governments to implement further aggressive action. The Japanese government s call for both fiscal policy stimulus and more quantitative easing and reaccelerating activity in China also served to reduce the downside risks to the outlook for the global economy. Reduced tail risks guaranteed stronger growth Despite all the constructive policy announcements the global economy is headed for another year of mediocre growth in 2013. Persistent uncertainty about US fiscal issues unease about Europe s ability to absorb further fiscal cutbacks even if tempered and political risks are some of the factors that will likely limit the pace of expansion in the developed countries to just this year. Emerging economies are expected to grow by thereby resulting in global growth coming in at with 2014 expected to deliver a stronger gain. Will this year be different For the

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