TAILIEUCHUNG - Summary of doctoral thesis: Trilemma and macro economic policy choice in Vietnam

The impossible trinity theory states that a country simultaneously may choose at most two of the following three goals: monetary independence, exchange rare stability and fully financial integration. In the context of financial integration steadily increasing in most countries, the choices and trade-offs between policy objectives become more and more important, because a combined policy will bring different effects for the economy. | 1 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY Đinh Thi Thu Hong TRILEMMA AND MACRO ECONOMIC POLICY CHOICE IN VIETNAM Major Finance - Banking Code 62340201 SUMMARY OF DOCTORAL THESIS Supervisor Prof. Dr. Tran Ngoc Tho Ho Chi Minh City - 2014 2 Introduction 1. Necessity of the thesis The impossible trinity theory states that a country simultaneously may choose at most two of the following three goals monetary independence exchange rare stability and fully financial integration. In the context of financial integration steadily increasing in most countries the choices and trade-offs between policy objectives become more and more important because a combined policy will bring different effects for the economy. Therefore the identification of the policy effectiveness will be very important for government agencies and macro administration to develop and implement appropriate policies in order to achieve certain economic goals. Thus I selected research topic Trilemma and macroeconomic policy choice in Vietnam for my doctorate thesis. 2. Prior researches Many both domestic and foreign researches has exploited the impossible trinity theory issues in many different aspects such as the measurement methods of policy objective acheivement impact of combined policies on to macroeconomic variables. However studies on the impact of policies generally focused on inflation and output growth not on unemployment rate as Aizenman et al. 2008 2010 2011 or researches on Vietnam such as some articles of Pham Thi Tuyet Trinh 2010 Le Phan Thi Dieu Thao 2010 Nguyen Tran Thuc Anh 2010 Nguyen Dai Lai 2013 . mainly interpreted the the trilemma situation have not analyzed the role of the policy combination on the economy and not quantify the impacts so obviously not much policy contribution provided. Differently this thesis aimed at calculating the three index of trilemma for ten developing countries in Asia especially Vietnam. The impacts of the policy combination

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