TAILIEUCHUNG - The Persian Gulf in the Coming Decade

This report examines likely challenges to . interests in the Persian Gulf region in the coming decade. In particular, the report explores the conventional military strength of Iran and Iraq, the potential for subversion, and the social and economic weaknesses of all the regional states. In addition, it seeks to identify key uncertainties and trends that may shape the region’s future. It then assesses the implications of these trends for the United States, particularly the . military. The research was completed before the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States | The Persian Gulf in the Coming Decade Trends Threats and Opportunities Daniel L. Byman John R. Wise Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for Public Release Distribution Unlimited RAND Project AIR FORCE The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division Directorate of Plans Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Byman Daniel 1967- The Persian Gulf in the coming decade trends threats and opportunities Daniel L. Byman John R. Wise. p. cm. Mr-1528. Includes bibliographical references p. . ISBN 0-8330-3206-2 1. Persian Gulf Region. 2. Persian Gulf Region Relations United States. 3. United States Relations Persian Gulf Region. I. Wise John R. II. Title. DS326 .B96 2002 dc21 2002026577 RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND is a registered trademark. RAND s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. Cover design by Stephen Bloodsworth Copyright 2002 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means including photocopying recording or information storage and retrieval without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2002 by RAND 1700 Main Street PO. Box 2138 Santa Monica CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street Arlington VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street Suite 202 Pittsburgh PA 15213-1516 RAND URL http To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information contact Distribution Services Telephone 310 451-7002 Fax 310 451-6915 Email order@ PREFACE This report examines likely challenges to . interests in the Persian Gulf region in the coming decade. In particular the report explores the conventional military strength of Iran and Iraq the potential for subversion and the social and economic .

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