TAILIEUCHUNG - Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

This volume pulls together and republishes, with some editing, updating, and additions, articles written during 1978-86 for internal use within the CIA Directorate of Intelligence. Four of the articles also appeared in the Intelligence Community journal Studies in Intelligence during that time frame. The information is relatively timeless and still relevant to the never-ending quest for better analysis. The articles are based on reviewing cognitive psychology literature concerning how people process information to make judgments on incomplete and ambiguous information. I selected the experiments and findings that seem most relevant to intelligence analysis and most in need of communication to intelligence analysts. I then translated the technical reports into. | History Staff Center for the Study of Intelligence Central Intelligence Agency 1999 Psychology of Intelligence Analysis Richards J. Heuer Jr. Table of Contents Author s Preface Foreword by Douglas MacEachin Introduction by Jack Davis PART I--OUR MENTAL MACHINERY Chapter 1 Thinking About Thinking Chapter 2 Perception Why Can t We See What Is There to Be Seen Chapter 3 Memory How Do We Remember What We Know PART II--TOOLS FOR THINKING Chapter 4 Strategies for Analytical Judgment Transcending the Limits of Incomplete Information Chapter 5 Do You Really Need More Information Chapter 6 Keeping an Open Mind Chapter 7 Structuring Analytical Problems Chapter 8 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses PART III--COGNITIVE BIASES Chapter 9 What Are Cognitive Biases Chapter 10 Biases in Evaluation of Evidence Chapter 11 Biases in Perception of Cause and Effect Chapter 12 Biases in Estimating Probabilities Chapter 13 Hindsight Biases in Evaluation of Intelligence Reporting PART IV--CONCLUSIONS Chapter 14 Improving Intelligence Analysis Publications Page CSI Homepage Center for the Study of Intelligence Central Intelligence Agency 1999 Psychology of Intelligence Analysis Author s Preface This volume pulls together and republishes with some editing updating and additions articles written during 1978-86 for internal use within the CIA Directorate of Intelligence. Four of the articles also appeared in the Intelligence Community journal Studies in Intelligence during that time frame. The information is relatively timeless and still relevant to the never-ending quest for better analysis. The articles are based on reviewing cognitive psychology literature concerning how people process information to make judgments on incomplete and ambiguous information. I selected the experiments and findings that seem most relevant to intelligence analysis and most in need of communication to intelligence analysts. I then translated the technical reports into language that intelligence analysts can .

• Y học thường thức
• Competing Hypotheses
• Structuring Analytical
• Estimating Probabilities
• Improving Intelligence
• Analytical Judgment