TAILIEUCHUNG - CLIMATE CHANGE AND TOURISM: WHERE WILL THE JOURNEY LEAD?

A further part of the decline in yields on government bonds appeared to reflect the additional cash in the financial system available to finance transactions in these and other securities. This was consistent with government bond yields declining by more than CDS premia. 3 Banks in Italy and Spain, for example, used new funds to significantly boost their holdings of government bonds (Graph 4, right-hand panel). While other euro area banks were less active in this respect, they may have committed new funds to help finance positions in government bonds for other investors. Or they may have purchased other assets. | tf G 3 tn uj c G 3 Õ April 11 2008 Deutsche Bank Research Climate change and tourism Where will the journey lead Energy and climate change dbresearch Authors Philipp Ehmer 49 69 910-31879 Eric Heymann 49 60 910-31730 @ Editor Tobias Just Technical Assistant Gerda Fuchs-Sobolew Deutsche Bank Research Frankfurt am Main Germany Internet E-mail Fax 49 69 910-31877 Managing Director Norbert Walter The new challenge of climate change. For the global tourism industry climate change brings more risks than opportunities. There will be regional and seasonal shifts in tourist flows resulting in both winners and losers. However it is undoubted that the tourism industry will continue to be a growth sector despite the challenge of climate change. Mediterranean countries particularly affected. In Europe countries bordering the Mediterranean will particularly suffer from climate change. Higher temperatures and water shortages could put off tourists in the high season. This is particularly true for countries in the eastern Mediterranean. In contrast those that could gain include the Benelux countries Denmark Germany and the Baltic countries. France and Italy will be slightly favoured due to the diversified structure of their tourism offers. Our conclusions are based on a detailed scoring model. Poor countries on the losing side. Outside Europe most countries will suffer from climate change albeit to differing degrees. Especially for the poorer countries in our investigation which are putting great hopes on tourism as a driver of development climate change will principally bring additional burdens. Canada New Zealand and the USA are the only three further countries outside Europe whose tourist industries will be on the winning side. High economic dependence aggravates the problem. Negative climatic consequences always have particularly serious effects if climate-sensitive tourism has major economic .

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