TAILIEUCHUNG - Rapid credit growth and international credit: Challenges for Asia

As discussed above in the context of the Asian financial crisis, capital controls and bank regulation in a particular country can dampen international credit flows or, depending on the type of regulation, they can favour one form of international credit over another. That is, international credit can flow both directly and indirectly, with the particular mix affected by policy and the organisation of globally active banks. Thus, focusing on only one type of international credit (eg direct cross-border) runs the risk of missing important developments in other forms (eg indirect cross-border) | BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS BIS Working Papers No 377 Rapid credit growth and international credit Challenges for Asia by Stefan Avdjiev Robert McCauley and Patrick McGuire Monetary and Economic Department April 2012 JEL classification E32 F34 F43 Keywords international credit credit booms cross-border lending emerging markets BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements and from time to time by other economists and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. This publication is available on the BIS website . Bank for International Settlements 2012. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 print ISSN 1682-7678 online Rapid credit growth and international credit Challenges for Asia1 2 Stefan Avdjiev Robert McCauley and Patrick McGuire Abstract Very low interest rates in major currencies have raised concerns over international credit flows to robustly growing economies in Asia. This paper examines three components of international credit and highlights several of the policy challenges that arise in constraining such credit. Our empirical findings suggest that international credit enables domestic credit booms in emerging markets. Furthermore we demonstrate that higher levels of international credit on the eve of a crisis are associated with larger subsequent contractions in overall credit and real output. In Asia today international credit generally is small in relation to overall credit - as was not the case before the Asian crisis. So even though dollar credit is growing very rapidly in some Asian economies its contribution to overall credit growth has been modest outside the more dollarised economies of Asia. Keywords international credit .

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