TAILIEUCHUNG - PREDICTING FINANCIAL DISTRESS OF COMPANIES: REVISITING THE Z-SCORE AND ZETA® MODELS

The fiscal year (FY) 2011 Financial Report of the United States Government (Report) provides the President, Congress, and the American people with a comprehensive view of the Federal Government’s finances, ., its financial position and condition, its revenues and costs, assets and liabilities, and other obligations and commitments. The Report also discusses important financial issues and significant conditions that may affect future operations. This year's Report emphasizes two key issues: the Government’s ongoing efforts to strengthen the economy and create jobs and the need to achieve fiscal sustainability over the medium and long term. Pursuant to 31. | PREDICTING FINANCIAL DISTRESS OF COMPANIES REVISITING THE Z-SCORE AND ZETA MODELS Edward I. Altman July 2000 Max L. Heine Professor of Finance Stern School of Business New York University. This paper is adapted and updated from E. Altman Financial Ratios Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy Journal of Finance September 1968 and E. Altman R. Haldeman and P. Narayanan Zeta Analysis A New Model to Identify Bankruptcy Risk of Corporations Journal of Banking Finance 1 1977. Predicting Financial Distress of Companies Revisiting the Z-Score and ZETA Models Background This paper discusses two of the venerable models for assessing the distress of industrial corporations. These are the so-called Z-Score model 1968 and ZETA 1977 credit risk model. Both models are still being used by practitioners throughout the world. The latter is a proprietary model for subscribers to ZETA Services Inc. Hoboken NJ . The purpose of this summary are two-fold. First those unique characteristics of business failures are examined in order to specify and quantify the variables which are effective indicators and predictors of corporate distress. By doing so I hope to highlight the analytic as well as the practical value inherent in the use of financial ratios. Specifically a set of financial and economic ratios will be analyzed in a corporate distress prediction context using a multiple discriminant statistical methodology. Through this exercise I will explore not only the quantifiable characteristics of potential bankrupts but also the utility of a much-maligned technique of financial analysis ratio analysis. Although the models that we will discuss were developed in the late 1960 s and mid-1970 s I will extend our tests and findings to include application to firms not traded publicly to non-manufacturing entities and also refer to a new bond-rating equivalent model for emerging markets corporate bonds. The latter utilizes a version of the Z-Score model called Z . This

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