TAILIEUCHUNG - STOCK MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE CAUSAL LINKAGE

Capital flows are highly liquid, can respond abruptly to changes in economic and financial conditions, and exercise a primary influence on exchange rates and through those on global flows of goods and services. Economists generally attribute recent rise and fall in foreign investment to a number of factors, including a “safe haven” effect during times of uncertainty; comparatively favorable returns on investments relative to risk, a surplus of saving in other areas of the world, the well-developed . financial system, and the overall stability of the . economy. Net capital inflows (inflows net of outflows) bridge the gap in the. | JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Volume 29 Number 1 June 2004 33 STOCK MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH THE CAUSAL LINKAGE Guglielmo Maria Caporale Peter G. a Howells and Alaa M. Soliman London South Bank University and London Metropolitan University University of the West of England Leeds Metropolitan University This paper addresses the question does stock market development cause growth It examines the causal linkage between stock market development financial development and economic growth. The argument is that any inference that financial liberalisation causes savings or investment or growth or that financial intermediation causes growth drawn from bivariate causality tests may be invalid as invalid causality inferences can result from omitting an important variable. The empirical part of this study exploits techniques recently developed by Toda and Yamamoto 1995 to test for causality in VARs and emphasises the possibility of omitted variable bias. The evidence obtained from a sample of seven countries suggests that a well-developed stock market can foster economic growth in the long run. it also provides support to theories according to which well-functioning stock markets can promote economic development by fuelling the engine of growth through faster capital accumulation and by tuning it through better resource allocation. Keywords Financial Development Economic Growth Stock Market Causality Testing VARs Incomplete Systems JEL classification C12 C32 O16 1. INTRODUCTION The idea that financial markets may be related with real activities is not new but the view of this relationship has changed over time. The main function of money or capital was to trade in credit for the purpose of financing development before the Great Depression. Gurley and Shaw 1955 were the first to study the relationship between financial markets and real activity. They argued that one of the differences between developed and developing countries is that the financial system is more

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