TAILIEUCHUNG - Mining The Web For The "Voice Of The Herd" To Track Stock Market Bubbles

The sample of M&As is collected from the Securities Data Corporation’s (SDC) US Mergers and Acquisitions Database. We select both completed and withdrawn domestic M&As with announcement dates between 1980 and 2003, and require both the acquirer and the target to be public firms. We include only acquisitions in which the acquiring firms control less than 50% of the shares of the target firms before acquisition announcements. We further require that 1) deal values are at least $10 million; 2) acquiring firms are listed on the NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ when the acquisitions are announced; 3) stock price and return information of acquiring firms are available fromCenter. | Proceedings of the Twenty-Second International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence Mining the Web for the Voice of the Herd to Track Stock Market Bubbles Aaron Gerow Mark T. Keane Trinity College Dublin Dublin Ireland gerowa@ University College Dublin Belfield Ireland Abstract We show that power-law analyses of financial commentaries from newspaper web-sites can be used to identify stock market bubbles supplementing traditional volatility analyses. Using a four-year corpus of 17 713 online finance-related articles 10M words from the Financial Times the New York Times and the BBC we show that week-to-week changes in power-law distributions reflect market movements of the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJI the FTSE-100 and the NIKKEI-225. Notably the statistical regularities in language track the 2007 stock market bubble showing emerging structure in the language of commentators as progressively greater agreement arose in their positive perceptions of the market. Furthermore during the bubble period a marked divergence in positive language occurs as revealed by a Kullback-Leibler analysis. 1 Introduction Reputedly John D. Rockefeller got out of stocks before the 1929 crash when a bellhop asked him for a stock tip showing the millionaire s canniness as to the causes of stock market bubbles namely that they occur when everyone is talking about the market and has the same positive view of it. Bubbles are defined by emerging unrealistic expectations about future earnings in a stock or commodity that gathers pace through imitative herd behavior that feeds into further irrational exuberance Somette 2003 . Current techniques for predicting bubbles rely on the analyses of price movements and volatility . the VXO VIX or the LP-PL model see Yan et al. 2010 but are often explained away by claims about new valuation models . the New Economy story during the bubble . Recently the statistical regularities found in written-language .

• Đầu tư Chứng khoán
• recommendations
• decision to prescribe
• healthcare professional
• Organic and Conventional
• Behavioural Perspective
• Practice Theory
• Vietnamese state owned enterprises
• Emerging issues
• Policy recommendations
• Post equitization period
• Provides some policy recommendations
• infections
• transmissible
• transfusion
• donated
• blood
• screening
• dod
• leaders
• options
• diversity
• planning
• major
• findings
• freedom
• iraqi
• army
• forces
• operation
• sustainment
• Recruitment in Thang Long postal insurance company
• Recommendations to improve the quality of recruitment
• A presentation of the company
• Present my missions in the probation in the company
• Evaluating situation of recruitment
• Situation of recruitment
• Exploitation and Use of Bioenergy during
• The Implementation of Vietnam’s Green Growth Strategy
• Status and Policy Recommendations
• The National Green Growth Strategy recently approved
• Technology development in Vietnam
• The soil potassium
• Soil Test Methodology
• Fertilizer Recommendations
• Grain Yield
• Initial composite soil
• Basic soil properties
• Site specific
• Nutrient maps
• GIS based site specific major
• Recommendations for coconut
• Coconut (Cocus nucifera L ) gardens
• Teaching stem education in Nigeria
• Challenges and recommendations
• Teaching stem education
• STEM education in Nigeria
• Engineering and mathematics education
• Summary of PhD thesis
• Summary of PhD thesis in Business Administration
• Competitive neutrality
• Recommendations for competitive renovation
• State owned enterprises
• Competition law
• Competition policy
• Industrial policy
• Merger regulation
• Recommendations to Viet Nam
• Recommendations to reduce national logistics costs
• Reduce national logistics costs
• Reduce national logistics costs in Vietnam
• Logistics activities
• Logistics costs
• Circular economy
• Natural resources
• Qualitative analysis methods
• Qualitative analysis methods
• Finance accounting and Auditing
• Audit recommendations
• State Audit
• Audit quality
• Accounts payable
• Financial correction
• Movie recommendations
• Hybrid feature combination method
• Recommender systems
• Collaborative ltering
• Demographic ltering
• Lecture SME Management
• Bài giảng Quản lý doanh nghiệp vừa và nhỏ
• SME Management
• WTO conclusions and recommendations
• Internationally binding commitments
• Policy formulation
• Venture capital
• Vietnamese SMEs’ ability
• International integration process
• Socio economic development
• South Africa
• Zimbabwe
• Local Production
• Implementation Challenges
• Industrial park
• Land expropriation
• Binary logistic regression
• Personal income
• Influential factors
• BMC Cancer
• Anal cancer
• Radiation therapy
• Contouring guidelines
• Target volume
• Inguinal contouring recommendations
• a data rich assessment
• reduction in poverty
• Structural change
• global economy
• Foreign investors
• information technology
• international certification
• Safety Recommendations
• Cisco ASA 5580
• Hardware
• Electrostatic Discharge
• donation practices
• determining factor
• sufficient information
• Library Functions
• Implementations
• Standardization