TAILIEUCHUNG - Dissecting the Eect of Credit Supply on Trade: Evidence from Matched Credit-Export Data 

The paper seeks to assess how a major policy regime change – such as the introduction of the currency board in Bulgaria – affects the flow of bank credit to the corporate sector. An attempt is made to identify the determinants of corporate credit separately from the viewpoint of lenders and borrowers. The estimated credit supply and credit demand equations provide empirical evidence of important changes in microeconomic behavioral patterns which can be associated with the policy regime change. The results also suggest a considerable asymmetry in the response of credit supply and credit demand to the policy shock:. | Dissecting the Effect of Credit Supply on Trade Evidence from Matched Credit-Export Data Daniel Paravisini Veronica Rappoport Columbia GSB NBER BREAD Columbia GSB Philipp Schnabl Daniel Wolfenzon NYU Stern CEPR Columbia GSB NBER May 19 2011 Abstract We estimate the elasticity of exports to credit using matched customs and firm-level bank credit data from Peru. To account for non-credit determinants of exports we compare changes in exports of the same product and to the same destination by firms borrowing from banks differentially affected by capital flow reversals during the 2008 financial crisis. A 10 decline in credit reduces by the intensive margin of exports by the number of firms that continue supplying a productdestination but has no effect on the entry margin. Overall credit shortages explain 15 of the Peruvian exports decline during the crisis. We are grateful to Mitchell Canta Paul Castillo Roberto Chang Sebnem Kalemni-Ozcan Manuel Luy Molinie Marco Vega and David Weinstein for helpful advice and discussions. We thank Diego Cisneros Sergio Correia Jorge Mogrovejo Jorge Olcese Javier Poggi Adriana Valenzuela and Lucciano Villacorta for outstanding help with the data. Juanita Gonzalez provided excellent research assistance. We thank participants at CEMFI Columbia University GSB XXVIII Encuentro de Economistas at the Peruvian Central Bank FRB of Philadelphia Fordham University Instituto de Empresa London School of Economics University of Michigan Ross School of Business University of Minnesota Carlson School of Management MIT Sloan NBER International Trade and Investment NBER International Finance and Monetary NBER Corporate Finance Ohio State University and RES 2011 seminars and workshops for helpful comments. Paravisini Rappoport and Wolfenzon thank Jerome A. Chazen Institute of International Business for financial support. All errors are our own. Please send correspondence to Daniel Paravisini dp2239@ Veronica Rappoport .

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