TAILIEUCHUNG - THE DUTCH MONETARY ENVIRONMENT DURING TULIPMANIA

This document is the result of efforts by the DAC Working Party on Development Co- operation and Environment to clarify the key linkages between poverty and environmental degradation, with special attention paid to their gender dimension - and the policy implications at the local, sectoral and national levels. The objective is not to provide a comprehensive coverage of all pertinent issues, but to provide an analytical road-map which could be used as reference for more detailed sector and country-specific examinations. As such, the document complements other recent DAC Work in the area of poverty and sustainable Development and in particular the recent DAC Guidelines on Poverty Reduction. | ARTICLES The Dutch Monetary Environment During Tulipmania Doug French When the economics profession turns its attention to financial panics and crashes the first episode mentioned is tulipmania. In fact tulipmania has become a metaphor in the economics field. Should one look up tulipmania in The New Palgrave A Dictionary of Economics a discussion of the seventeenth century Dutch speculative mania will not be found. Guillermo Calvo 1987 p. 707 in his contribution to the Palgrave instead defines tulipmania as situations in which some prices behave in a way that appears not to be fully explainable by economic fundamentals. Brown university economist peter Garber is considered the modern tulipmania expert. in Garber s view tulipmania was not a mania at all but is explainable by market fundamentals. The explosive increases in the price of tulip bulbs Garber says can be explained by supply and demand factors. Rare bulbs were hard to reproduce and in the greatest demand. Thus rare bulbs tended to rise in price. However this does not explain the price history of the common Witte croonen bulb that rose in price twenty-six times in January 1637 only to fall to one-twentieth of its peak price a week later Garber 1989 p. 556 . Garber admits in more recent works 2000 p. 80 that the increase and collapse of the relative price of common bulbs is the remarkable feature of this phase of the speculation. Garber in his own words would be hard pressed to find a market fundamental explanation for these relative price movements. in addition to his fundamentals argument Garber 1990b p. 16 points to the Bubonic plague as a possible cause of tulipmania. Although the plague outbreak may be a false clue it is conceivable that a gambling binge tied to a drinking game and general carousing may have materialized as a response to the death threat. This fatalistic extension of Keynes s animal spirits hypothesis is less than convincing. Doug French is an executive vice president with a bank in .

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