TAILIEUCHUNG - Private Real Estate Investment Analysis within a One-Shot Decision Framework

There is also a good dataset for open-end real estate funds. Over the last 10 years, investors in this asset class have been able to achieve a higher average annual return than on investments in equity funds (see Fig. 16). However, compared with most bond funds, open-end real estate funds come off worse. This relationship has also generally been maintained over longer periods of up to 20 years: however it is probably also be affected by the poor performance of the stock market in the last few years. On a 30-year average, equity funds with an investment focus in Germany. | Private Real Estate Investment Analysis 238 INTERNATIONAL REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2010 Vol. 13 No. 3 pp. 238 - 260 Private Real Estate Investment Analysis within a One-Shot Decision Framework Peijun Guo Faculty of Business Administration Yokohama National University 79-4 Tokiwadai Hodogaya-ku Yokohama 240-8501 Japan Email guo@ Land development is a typical one-shot decision for private investors due to the huge investment expense and the fear of substantial loss. In this paper a private real estate investment problem is analyzed within a one-shot decision framework which is used for a situation where a decision is made only once. The one-shot decision framework involves two steps. The first is to identify which state of nature should be focused for each alternative. The second is to evaluate alternatives by using the focused states of nature. In a one-shot decision framework the behavior of different types of private investors such as normal active passive and more easily satisfied ones are examined. The analysis provides insights into personal real estate investment and important policy implications in the regulation of urban land development. Keywords Private real estate investment Possibility theory One-shot decision Focus points 239 Guo 1. Introduction There are many underutilized and vacant urban lots throughout the world which are held by private investors who are interested in maximizing their wealth by land development. Three approaches are commonly used for property and land valuation Appraisal Institute 2001 Baum and Crosby 1988 Isaac 2002 . The first is the cost approach which estimates the property by summing the land value and the depreciated value of any improvements. The second is the sales comparison approach which compares the characteristics of a subject property with those of comparable properties sold in similar transactions. This kind of method is a variation of hedonic regression models. The third is income approach. The discounted cash .

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