TAILIEUCHUNG - Handbook of Economic Forecasting part 77

Handbook of Economic Forecasting part 77. Research on forecasting methods has made important progress over recent years and these developments are brought together in the Handbook of Economic Forecasting. The handbook covers developments in how forecasts are constructed based on multivariate time-series models, dynamic factor models, nonlinear models and combination methods. The handbook also includes chapters on forecast evaluation, including evaluation of point forecasts and probability forecasts and contains chapters on survey forecasts and volatility forecasts. Areas of applications of forecasts covered in the handbook include economics, finance and marketing | 734 . Pesaran and M. Weale a range of topics which could not be covered by administrative sources and full enumeration censuses it was natural that these began to extend themselves to covering questions about the future as well as the past. It also has to be said that interest in measuring expectations was likely only after economists had started to understand the importance expectations of future events as determinants of the current decisions. This was a process which began in the 1920s with discussions on the nature of risk and uncertainty Knight 1921 expanded in the 1930s through Keynes contributions and has continued to develop ever since. The earliest systematic attempt to collect information on expectations which we have been able to trace was a study carried out in 1944 by the United States Department of Agriculture. This was a survey of consumer expectations attempting to measure consumer sentiment Katona 1975 with the latter calculated by aggregating the categorical answers provided to a variety of questions the survey has been widely imitated. Dominitz and Manski 2005 present a statistical analysis of the way in which the sentiment indicator is produced. Currently the survey is run by the University of Michigan and is known as the Michigan Survey with many other similar surveys conducted across OECD countries so as to provide up to date information on consumer expectations. Questions on expectations are also sometimes included in panel surveys. The British Household Panel Survey is one such example which asks questions such as whether households expect their financial positions to improve or worsen over the coming year. Such surveys as well as offering an insight into how such expectations may be formed do of course make it possible to assess whether or how far such expectations are well-founded by comparing the experiences of individual households with their prior expectations. A key aspect of the Michigan Survey and of many other more recent surveys

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