TAILIEUCHUNG - Short-term flood forecasting with an amended semi-parametric regression ensemble model

In the process of model building, three altered linear regression models are applied for the parametric component. They are stepwise multiple linear regression, partial least squares solution and multirecursive regression method. | 117 TẠP CHÍ PHÁT TRIỂN KH&CN, TẬP 20, SỐ K2-2017 Short-term flood forecasting with an amended semi-parametric regression ensemble model Le Hoang Tuan, and To Anh Dung Abstract—Flood forecasting is very important research topic in disaster prevention and reduction. The characteristics of flood involve a rather complex systematic dynamic under the influence of different meteorological factors including linear and non-linear patterns. Recently there are many novel forecasting methods of improving the forecasting accuracy. This paper explores the potential and effect of the semiparametric regression to modelize flood water-level and to forecast the inundation of Mekong Delta in Vietnam. The semi-parametric regression technique is a combination of a parametric regression approach and a non-parametric regression concept. In the process of model building, three altered linear regression models are applied for the parametric component. They are stepwise multiple linear regression, partial least squares solution and multirecursive regression method. They are used to capture flood’s linear characteristics. The nonparametric part is solved by a modified estimation of a smooth function. Furthermore, some justified nonlinear regression models based on artificial neural network are also able to obtain flood’s non-linear characteristics. They help us to smooth the model's non-parametric constituent easily and quickly. The last element is the model's error. Then the semiparametric regression is used for ensemble model based on the principle component analysis technique. Flood water-level forecasting, with a lead time of one and more days, has been made by using a selected sequence of past water-level values and some relevant factors observed at a specific location. Time-series analytical method is utilized to build the model. Manuscript Received on July 13th, 2016. Manuscript Revised December 06th, 2016. The authors thank the University of Information Technology – Vietnam .

• Vật lý
• Science and technology development
• Short term flood forecasting
• Amended semi parametric regression ensemble model
• The parametric component
• Multirecursive regression method
• Tạp chí khoa học
• Tạp chí Công nghệ
• Quản lý công nghệ
• Legal regulations for science and technology
• Development of science and technology
• Journal of Science
• Journal of Technology
• Technology Management
• Science and Technology Strategy
• Evaluation of science and technology
• Summary of Doctoral thesis
• Management of state budget investing
• Science and technology development funds
• Technology development funds
• State budget investing in science
• Science technology enterprises
• Report for Asian development bank
• Strategy agricultural science
• Strategy technology
• Agricultural Science
• The agricultural research
• Theory Z
• Human Resources
• Development policy of Japan
• Policy framework for the development of Vietnam maritime science
• Technology information system
• Technology information sources
• The macroeconomic policy oriented goals
• International Conference on Emerging Challenges
• Knowledge transfer
• Incubator model
• Technology development organizations
• Science and Technology Incubation Centers
• Technology transfer mechanism
• document review
• science and technology
• materials science research
• scientific research
• science an
• Technology development
• Technology commercialization
• History of Science
• History of Technology
• History of Social Development
• The Great Hydraulic Civilizations
• Neolithic societies
• Lịch sử khoa học
• Quản lí công nghệ
• Development investment
• Investment for science and technology
• Shifts of local economic structure
• Development Strategy
• Procedure of planning
• Science technology roles
• Socio economic development
• Production activities
• Federal Science
• Technology Budget
• Technology Policy
• Manufacturing Development
• Technological Innovation
• Economic Growth
• Agricultural Development
• Major Agricultural
• General Goal
• General Roadmap
• Science and technology in agriculture
• Driving forces for development
• Research Organizations
• Policy Planning
• Science and technology enterprise
• Technology reception
• Developing economy
• Industry development
• Science and technology innovation
• Technological cooperation
• Improving institutional structures of the country
• Science and technology policy
• Science and technology human resource
• Policy setting practice
• Assigned tasks
• R&D organizations
• Policies for training works
• Evaluation of impacts
• Economic development
• Red River Delta