TAILIEUCHUNG - Econometric modelling of unemployment in Serbia during period 2008-2013

The purpose of the paper is to econometrically exploit the characteristics of unemployment in Serbia upon the start of the 2008 economic crisis. The methodological framework is based on the cointegrated vector autoregressive model that consists of the following macroeconomic variables: unemployment rate, prices, nominal wages and nominal exchange rate. | Yugoslav Journal of Operations Researc 24 (2014), Number 3, 333-346 DOI: ECONOMETRIC MODELLING OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN SERBIA DURING PERIOD 2008-2013 Aleksandra ANIĆ Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, Belgrade aleksandraanic@ Zorica MLADENOVIĆ Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, Belgrade zvujos@ Received: April 2014 / Accepted: September 2014 Abstract: The purpose of the paper is to econometrically exploit the characteristics of unemployment in Serbia upon the start of the 2008 economic crisis. The methodological framework is based on the cointegrated vector autoregressive model that consists of the following macroeconomic variables: unemployment rate, prices, nominal wages and nominal exchange rate. These variables are unit-root processes and their relationship is examined within the multivariate cointegrated time series set-up. Following the deductive modelling approach, we reached the specification that explains unemployment rate by real wages. The results show the negative consequences of the economic crisis to the labour market, with an extremely high increase in the unemployment rate. Strong negative impact of real wages on unemployment rate is additionally confirmed by its dynamic effects throughout the impulse response function. Keywords: Cointegrated vector autoregressive model, Impulse response function, Real wages, Unemployment rate. MSC: 97K80, 91G99. 1. INTRODUCTION Unemployment has always been considered as substantially important economic and political issue that society has to deal with. What is the cause of high unemployment 334 , / Econometric Modelling of Unemployment in Serbia rate? The reasons are numerous, but some of them could be highlighted as the most important, such as economic crisis that hits the whole economy and transition period (restructuring the economy from state and socio-owned to the market based). The transition period in Serbia has been

• Kinh tế học
• Cointegrated vector autoregressive model
• Impulse response function
• Real wages
• Unemployment rate
• Characteristics of unemployment