TAILIEUCHUNG - Trade creation or trade diversion in ASEAN and ASEAN+6 FTAs: Trade indicators approach

Trade creation or trade diversion in ASEAN and ASEAN+6 FTAs: Trade indicators approach. This paper makes use of two trade indicators, Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Regional Orientation (RO), to evaluate the economic impacts of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (The) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on Vietnamese commodities at the Harmonized System (HS) 2-digit level. | Journal of Economics and Development, , , December 2015, pp. 25-41 ISSN 1859 0020 Trade Creation or Trade Diversion in ASEAN and ASEAN+6 FTAs: Trade Indicators Approach Tu Thuy Anh Foreign Trade University, Vietnam Email: Le Minh Ngoc Foreign Trade University, Vietnam Email: leminhngoclmn@ Abstract This paper makes use of two trade indicators, Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Regional Orientation (RO), to evaluate the economic impacts of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (The) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on Vietnamese commodities at the Harmonized System (HS) 2-digit level. Several sectors in which Vietnam has revealed a comparative advantage, has benefited from the AFTA, and would continue to enjoy trade creation from the RCEP, are: Cereals (10), Salt, sulphur, earth, stone, plaster, lime and cement (25), Rubber (40), Knitted or crocheted fabric (60), etc. More importantly, the result provides a list of commodities in which Vietnam has a comparative advantage and only experiences trade creation when participating in the RCEP. These are: Milling products, malt, starches, inulin, wheat gluten (11), Vegetable plaiting materials, vegetable products not elsewhere specified (14), Wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal (44), etc. Findings also show commodities in which Vietnam has a comparative advantage; but are not well positioned in the RCEP market yet, . Cereal, flour, starch, milk preparations and products (19) and Manmade staple fibres (55). If sufficient investment decisions and marketing strategies are applied to these commodities, they will well penetrate the RCEP market and bring trade creation and welfare improvement to Vietnam. Public and private investment should consider the above-mentioned commodities as targets to leapfrog the benefits of RCEP. Keywords: Regional trade agreement; ASEAN; RCEP; impact assessment; trade indicators. Journal of Economics and Development 25 Vol. .

• Kinh tế học
• Trade creation
• Trade diversion in ASEAN
• ASEAN+6 FTAs
• Trade indicators approach
• The Regional Comprehensive Economic
• Trade diversion
• Vietnam EU
• Future Vietnam EU
• Free trade agreement
• FTA on Vietnam’s welfare
• Knowledge creation
• Knowledge creation and visualisation
• Trade off curves
• Enable set based concurrent engineering
• Knowledge visualisation
• International economics
• Lecture International economics
• The global economy
• Regional economic integration
• ASEAN partner
• Trade impact
• ASEAN plus one free trade agreements
• Gravity model
• Including trade creation
• Business schools
• Change management analyst
• Financial economics
• Intellectual property
• Job creation program
• Economic growth and macroeconomic dynamics
• Macroeconomic dynamics
• Economic theory
• Dynamic trade creation
• Balanced growth path
• Logarithmic differentiation of equation
• Electronics industry
• New generation free trade agreements
• Vietnam's electronics industry recently
• FDI attraction
• Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership