TAILIEUCHUNG - Train_Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation - Chapter 2

2 Properties of Discrete Choice Models This chapter describes the features that are common to all discrete choice models. We start by discussing the choice set, which is the set of options that are available to the decision maker. | P1 GEM IKJ P2 GEM IKJ QC GEM ABE T1 GEM September 18 2002 11 15 Char Count 0 CB495-02Drv CB495 Train KEY BOARDED Part I Behavioral Models 13 P1 GEM IKJ P2 GEM IKJ QC GEM ABE CB495-02Drv CB495 Train KEY BOARDED T1 GEM September 18 2002 11 15 Char Count 0 14 T1 GEM P1 GEM IKJ P2 GEM IKJ QC GEM ABE CB495-02Drv CB495 Train KEYBOARDED September 18 2002 11 15 Char Count 0 2 Properties of Discrete Choice Models Overview This chapter describes the features that are common to all discrete choice models. We start by discussing the choice set which is the set of options that are available to the decision maker. We then define choice probabilities and derive them from utility-maximizing behavior. The most prominent types of discrete choice models namely logit generalized extreme value GEV probit and mixed logit are introduced and compared within the context of this general derivation. Utility as a constructed measure of well-being has no natural level or scale. This fact has important implications for the specification and normalization of discrete choice models which we explore. We then show how individual-level models are aggregated to obtain market-level predictions and how the models are used for forecasting over time. The Choice Set Discrete choice models describe decision makers choices among alternatives. The decision makers can be people households firms or any other decision-making unit and the alternatives might represent competing products courses of action or any other options or items over which choices must be made. To fit within a discrete choice framework the set of alternatives called the choice set needs to exhibit three characteristics. First the alternatives must be mutually exclusive from the decision maker s perspective. Choosing one alternative necessarily implies not choosing any of the other alternatives. The decision maker chooses only one alternative from the choice set. Second the choice set must be exhaustive in that all possible .

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