TAILIEUCHUNG - Fair economic prospects

The story also neglects the reality that affluent households value the services that are sustained through taxes. The wealthy drive better cars, but they drive them on public streets. Even if affluent families send children to private schools, the businesses they own hire workers who graduate from local schools. And upper-income families value the services of fire and police as much as any other family. All of these factors are part of the reason that relatively few people actually move across state lines. Between 2008 and 2009, only percent of households moved to a different state. Those who do are. | Deutsche Bank DB Research Research Briefing Emerging markets October 26 2012 Brazil Fair economic prospects Or why the doomsayers are wrong Author Markus Jaeger 1 212 250-6971 Editor Maria Laura Lanzeni Deutsche Bank AG DB Research Frankfurt am Main Germany E-mail Fax 49 69 910-31877 DB Research Management Ralf Hoffmann Bernhard Speyer Brazil s economic growth has roughly doubled over the past ten years increasing from a year to almost 4 . Admittedly the 1980s and 1990s set a low standard for such a comparison and the past decade provided an unusually favourable backdrop to economic growth in the emerging markets. Brazil s economic fundamentals remain very sound. Record-high FX reserves and a very manageable current account deficit would allow Brazil to withstand even a severe balance-of-payments shock in terms of systemic financial stability. Gross government debt remains high but is controllable given the underlying fiscal stance. China has been a major factor behind the shift in Brazil s export mix. Whatever one s view of Brazil s intensifying trade relations with China in terms of economic development it is incontrovertible that Brazil has taken advantage of the commodity boom to improve its external and to a lesser extent government finances. In cyclical terms the weakness of the Brazilian economy can be largely explained by sluggish global demand and a strong currency weighing on manufacturing output. While bank lending has slowed down somewhat aggressive central bank rate cuts will sooner or later lead to strengthening domestic demand and increasing investment. The good news is that the cyclical recovery will be accompanied by structural reforms. Many but not all measures aim to raise productivity and both public and private-sector investment. On balance the measures have a greater focus on supply than demand than in the past. The reforms combined with a cyclical recovery will underpin .

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