TAILIEUCHUNG - The Global Economic Burden of Non-communicable Diseases

Relatedly, controlling for the forecast error of the change in fiscal policy does not, in our application, provide a way of estimating the causal effect of fiscal policy on growth. Over the two-year intervals that we consider, changes in fiscal policy are unlikely to be orthogonal to economic developments. Thus, the forecast error of fiscal consolidation over our two-year intervals cannot be interpreted as an identified fiscal shock and cannot yield estimates of actual fiscal multipliers. A large literature seeks to identify such exogenous shifts in government spending and revenues. Doing so has proven difficult and lies beyond the scope. | WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM COMMITTED TO IMPROVING THE STATE OF THE WORLD The Global Economic Burden of Non-communicable Diseases A report by the World Economic Forum and the Harvard School of Public Health September 2011 Suggested citation Bloom . Cafiero . Jané-Llopis E. Abrahams-Gessel S. Bloom . Fathima S. Feigl . Gaziano T Mowafi M. Pandya A. Prettner K. Rosenberg L. Seligman B. Stein . Weinstein C. 2011 . The Global Economic Burden of Noncommunicable Diseases. Geneva World Economic Forum. See EconomicsOfNCD See online appendix for detailed notes on the data sources and methods EconomicsOfNCDappendix The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors alone. They do not necessarily represent the decisions policy or views of the World Economic Forum or the Harvard School of Public Health. World Economic Forum 91-93 route de la Capite CH-1223 Cologny Geneva Switzerland Tel. 41 0 22 869 1212 Fax 41 0 22 786 2744 E-mail contact@ 2011 World Economic Forum All rights reserved. This material may be copied photocopied duplicated and shared provided that it is clearly attributed to the World Economic Forum. This material may not be used for commercial purposes. REF 080911 Table of Contents Preface 5 Executive Summary 6 1. Background on NCDs 7 2. The Global Economic Burden of NCDs 14 Approach 1 Cost-of-Illness 15 Approach 2 Value of Lost Output 28 Approach 3 Value of a Statistical Life 31 3. Conclusion 35 References 38 List of Tables 42 List of Figures 43 List of Boxes 44 Acknowledgements 45

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