TAILIEUCHUNG - Measuring the Timing Ability and Performance of Bond Mutual Funds

So, how can we explain the superior performance of strategies that account for predictable manager skills? The answer lies in examining inter- and intraindustry asset allocation effects. Specifically, we compute, for each investment month and for each strategy considered, industry-level and industry-adjusted demonstrate that, for a strategy that incorporates manager skill predictability, these industry-level returns are 2–4%/year higher than those of a passive strategy that merely holds the time-series average industry allocation of that same strategy. In contrast, such industry timing performance is virtually nonexistent for the other competing strategies that do not account for predictable manager skills. . | Measuring the Timing Ability and Performance of Bond Mutual Funds by Yong Chen Wayne Ferson Helen Peters first submission April 2009 this revision August 24 2009 Ferson is the Ivadelle and Theodore Johnson Chair of Banking and Finance and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research Marshall School of Business University of Southern California 3670 Trousdale Parkway Suite 308 Los Angeles CA 90089-0804 ph. 213 740-5615 ferson@ ferson . Peters is Professor of Finance at Boston College 140 Commonwealth Ave Chestnut Hill MA 02467 617 552-3945 . Chen is Assistant Professor of Finance at Virginia Tech Blacksburg VA. 24061 . We are grateful to participants in workshops at Baylor University Brigham Young Boston College DePaul the University of Connecticut the University of Florida the University of Georgia Georgetown the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology the University of Iowa the University of Massachusetts at Amherst Michigan State University the University of Michigan the National University of Singapore Nanyang Technological Institute New York University Singapore Management University Southern Methodist University the University of Oklahoma the University of Kansas Virginia Tech York University and the Office of Economic Analysis Securities and Exchange Commission for feedback as well as to participants at the following conferences The 2008 China International Conference in Finance the 2005 Global Finance Conference at Trinity College Dublin the 2006 Journal of Investment Management Conference the 2008 ISCTE NOVA Business School conference the 2005 Southern Finance and the 2005 Western Finance Association Meetings. We also appreciate helpful comments from an anonymous referee and from Vasantha Chigurupati Walter Dolde James Hilliard Scott Linn Ricardo Rodriguez Antonios Sangvinatos Bryan Schmutz M. Abdullah Sahin Nadia Vozlyublennaia and Hong Yan. Revision for the .

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