TAILIEUCHUNG - Impact of Property Prices on Stock Prices in Hong Kong

To install an inexpensive pinning device in a double hung window, drill a 3/ 16" hole from the inside window sash halfway through the outside sash at a slight downward angle. Then insert a nail or pin into the hole to secure the window. If the sash is wood, the pin can be made of such length as to set flush with the sash. A magnet kept nearby can then be used to remove the pin. The occupant must remember, however, that room windows are often used as a means of escape from burning buildings and at least one window in each room should be available for. | Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies Vol. 4 No. 1 2001 29-43 World Scientific Publishing Company Impact of Property Prices on Stock Prices in Hong Kong_ Raymond Y. C. Tse Department of Building Real Estate Hong Kong Polytechnic University Hung Hom Kowloon Hong Kong This paper studies the extent to which real estate prices impact common stock prices in Hong Kong. Real estate-related firms account for over 30 percent of Hong Kong s stock market capitalization. The real estate markets are therefore major determinants of changes in common stock prices. This study using data during the 1974-1998 period not only supports empirically that both unexpected changes in residential and office property prices are important determinants of the change in stock prices for Hong Kong it also finds that the property and stock price series are cointegrated. Impulse response function based on an error-correction VAR model is used to examine the dynamic relationships between real estate and common stock prices. Keywords Common stock residential office impulse response Hong Kong 1. Introduction Real estate-related stocks account for a substantial portion over 30 percent in 1997 of Hong Kong s stock market. Ten of the top 20 companies listed are real estate or real estate-related companies. The market share of the six major real estate developers accounts for about 40 to 50 percent of the new supply of residential and office properties. Real estate demand in Hong Kong mostly concentrates mainly on residential and office property see Table 1 . The development share in residential and office property accounts for about 90 percent of total property development in Hong Kong Webb and Tse 2000 . Due to industrial relocation the takeup of industrial property became negative in the mid-90s. Thus in Hong Kong the two property types with active transactions are residential and office. The real estate development companies

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